CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Tuesday revealed how the Democrats won the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown despite receiving backlash for failing to secure an extension on health care subsidies. (Watch his analysis below.)
Nearly two weeks after the shutdown came to an end, President Donald Trump holds a net approval rating (percent who approve minus those who disapprove) of -15 points, a -5 point drop from his pre-shutdown figure, according to Enten.
“The lowest his net approval rating has been during his entire second term in office,” Enten said. “So the shutdown, it might have initially been helping Donald Trump out a little bit ― or at least his ratings weren’t falling. But now, his ratings have sunk to a term two low.”
When asked how Democrats have fared since the shutdown’s conclusion, Enten highlighted an aggregate of polling that showed how the party had an advantage (+5 points) on a generic congressional ballot, a jump of +2 points from pre-shutdown numbers. He tied those findings to Democrats “really, really outperforming the baseline from 2024” in key election races this year, and added that the party needs to do the same to win in the midterms.
With the White House expected to share its plan for extending health care subsidies with eligibility limits ahead of a vote in the Senate next month, there’s a 56% chance that the subsidies will be extended this year, according to the prediction market Kalshi.
“If Democrats get this, and then, of course, they got Trump’s approval rating falling and their generic ballot lead widening. Again, I don’t see how you can come to the conclusion anything other than they won the shutdown,” Enten said.