As we reflect on the EU Referendum -- did we hit the right target? Was the EU holding us back -- or is there something more fundamentally wrong? Perhaps, we might need to navigate a different course towards a prosperous UK?
"The future always comes too fast and in the wrong order." Alvin Toffler.
In the process of making our voices heard -- we, the British electorate, appear to have been duped into the biggest mis-selling scandal in our history. As Michael Dougan, professor of European law at the University of Liverpool puts it, "On virtually every major issue that was raised in this referendum debate Leave's arguments consisted of at best misrepresentations and at worst outright deception."
All too soon, false promises have crumbled on immigration, on likely financial savings, on funding for the NHS, and on the economic consequences of Brexit.
Meanwhile, too many of our politicians have been falling on their swords, or seeking to further their own careers, rather than guiding us towards calmer waters. So, is this what the arrival of a golden new era looks like this?
Reality check.
We'll have to see, in the final analysis, whether the total cost of the Brexit solution proves to be cheaper than the one we had in place -- but, from where we stand today, the business case is not looking great.
We will have to account for the total administrative costs of exit -- disentangling and developing new laws. We might remove ourselves from Brussels, but we will need to beef-up our own bureaucratic infrastructure.
We will have to pick up the slack in funding for farming, scientific research, and regional development - all the stuff that too many governments will tend to dismiss as an unnecessary burden (certainly within our current neoliberal context).
We will have to account for the loss of business activity and jobs, as we find we are no longer a fully functioning gateway to a larger European market.
Furthermore, any new trade deal -- in whatever guise that takes -- is unlikely to be as good as the one we had. As the Prime Minister of Norway reminds us, Norway pays the same contribution per capita as the UK -- only without the full range of benefits and influence that being a full member attracts.
In losing our much prized AAA credit rating, it is now likely to be harder for UK businesses to borrow and invest, going forward.
The value of the pound has continued to fall. While this can be a boost to certain exports (presuming there are enough buyers) -- the cost of living is likely to rise, as imports become more expensive.
Meanwhile, with the future of freedom-of-movement and trade deals uncertain, millions of lives and livelihoods are hanging in the balance.
Stumbling in the dark.
Not too surprisingly, given the cold shower of reality, there has been a huge swell in buyer's' remorse. It seems the Referendum provided a conduit for protest about so many issues -- and people took this opportunity, perhaps not fully aware of the combined impact their votes were about to make.
The young are particularly mournful -- with so many hopes and dreams now up in the air. There is a very deep well of frustration and anger. Tens of thousands took to the streets, last weekend - marching through London, to demonstrate their support for the EU.
Hundreds have complained to the Advertising Standards Agency (ASA), about misleading, inaccurate and discriminatory advertising, made to sway voters -- although, the advertising watchdog has declared it is powerless to act, apparently.
Online petitions abound. Four million people have signed a petition calling for a Second Referendum. Others are calling on Parliament to use its powers of sovereignty to make the right call -- after all, the result of the referendum is non-binding.
Meanwhile, there is hope that diplomatic solutions can prevail. Could there still be a way we could 'walk back', as US secretary of state John Kerry has proposed?
In Parliament, Lord Heseltine is leading a fight-back -- as a majority of MPs are against leaving the EU -- calling for a cross-party group of MPs to look at the options and "articulate the case for Britain rethinking the result of the referendum."
There are some raising the question of whether Brexit is even legal -- proposing a judicial review on the basis of corrupt motivations and flawed substance. We were done.
Sadly, there is no room for buyers' remorse, according to David Cameron, as he prepares to exit, stage right.
Even key EU leaders seem to suggest it might not be possible to change our minds. The die has been cast, it seems -- for better or for worse -- there appears to be no cooling-off period in this difficult divorce.
Meanwhile, Johnson and Farage remain bullish and defiant -- although both have declined the opportunity to stay engaged; to help clear up the mess, or to be held accountable.
The meltwater effect.
We have already experienced immediate volatility in the markets, wiping millions off the stock market. A bounce-back was expected -- and did happen.
But, it would take an act of staggering complacency to think that stability has now been reached.
We now learn of a shock decline in construction output -- the biggest single month fall since 2009 -- meaning there are genuine fears about a coming crash in the UK's construction industry. Construction has always been an important barometer for the rest of the economy.
With a possible recession looming, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has already made moves to assure investors -- offering a stimulus package to keep funds flowing. Bank capital rules could also be relaxed.
More austerity is on the cards as the Chancellor, George Osborne, has announced he will have to raise taxes and cut spending -- in order for the government to live within its means.
We need to be mindful of the long-term impacts, for investment, for economic activity, for jobs, and future prosperity. Not just dwelling on the immediate shocks, the real shifts take time: by taking the Brexit route, we have effectively increased the flow of meltwater; we hear the noise and we get a sense that something is happening, but do not see too many immediate effects in our daily lives. Only later, over time, we can expect to reach tipping points -- where more dramatic shifts occur in the economy, with greater effects on how we live and work.
Investments cancelled today will means jobs that no longer occur in the future -- resulting in lost income and foregone tax revenue. The normally effervescent Richard Branson was very downbeat when he recently announced a cancelled contract, which would have meant 3,000 new jobs.
Sure, some businesses will stay -- but many, especially those that rely on the ease of cross-border working will leave -- most likely, through a process of economic drift, rather than immediate shock exits. As the new deal becomes visible, over the next couple of years, if it no longer looks attractive or workable, then it comes down to a simple business case - balancing the relative costs and benefits of staying versus leaving.
The plan is, there is no plan.
Quite staggeringly, all this turmoil was unleashed on us without a single coherent plan of what we would do next. Mark Carney seems to convey our collective disbelief with his steely calm speech last Friday, "So, we did our job -- we identified the risks."
The Bank of England at least had a plan, "To make the job of adjustment easier" -- just in case the unthinkable happened. Carney's mastery of assertive understatement leaves us with plenty of space to reflect on the completely amateur approach of the Leave Campaign; with nothing prepared in advance -- not even a back-of-fag-packet plan -- and since the result, not even a rough draft, that could have been hastily cobbled together in an emergency workshop over the post-result weekend. Even the presenters of our old children's television favourite, Blue Peter, could always be relied on to assure, "Here is one we prepared earlier." No, the distraction of cricket, and the ego-pampering preparations for an inflammatory victory speech, appear to have been ranked as higher priority than the future economic security of our country and its citizens.
Without a robust plan, the promises and blind optimism of a golden new economic dawn will need to be tempered with the cold reality of global commerce -- context is everything. Where would the Brexiters believe the new investment, jobs and money could come from? We launch the good ship UK -- or most likely the good ship England and Wales -- into a world of depressed demand, of slow economic growth, and unsustainable levels of debt. Only a fool would expect economic success to arise from entering these stormy waters -- just by turning up and announcing that Britain is great.
The key point is, we haven't yet fixed the problems from last recession -- growth and demand are weak, debt is still growing, jobs are less secure and the tendency is for temporary contacts and low wages. Confidence and prosperity are not words that readily spring to mind. So, how could we expect instant prosperity, simply from pulling back from a few EU rules?
Even the great economic powerhouse of China has major problems at this time -- despite its competitive advantages of economies of scale, access to cheap finance, a flexible and low-wage workforce, and so on. How would anyone think we could do any better in this challenging global context?
Brexit optimism represents naivety beyond belief. And -- as if the lack of a good execution plan is bad enough -- beneath this, there lies a deeper, and even more fundamental flaw.
Won the battle - lost the war.
At least, we won control of our country back. Really? Control of what and from whom? Sure, we may have won a theoretical point about sovereignty -- although we might reflect on just how much this will really benefit our daily lives -- but we have lost the practical economic imperative; by shooting the EU, we missed the real target by a mile. Our real master was not the Brussels' bureaucracy -- we remain in the humble service of global capitalism. This is the system we have been playing into with increasing veracity, over the last three decades. This is the system that drives all our policy actions and business behaviours. This is this system that concentrates wealth and power in the hands of a few -- driving further inequality in the process. And, ultimately, it is the controllers of this system that decide whether we prosper, or not.
In many ways, the EU has provided a countervailing force, against some of the worst excesses of global capitalism - developing employment rights, environmental protection, social inclusion, regional re-development, and so on. Perhaps, we shot the wrong guy?
International finance calls the shots in this big game: the money that shifts from place to place, market to market, business to business, at will -- and with the conditions it carries with it; where funds will be directed (or not), the rate of return required, the duration of investment, and so on. Money comes and goes - and in the worst cases, uses up resources, people, and communities -- leaving the debris behind: hence the hollowed-out communities in many of our towns and cities. Once financial capital has achieved its aims, and sees a higher return elsewhere, it moves on -- with little conscience about what happens next to you or I. Its work is done.
Instead of fearing the immigrant taking our jobs -- we might find greater danger in the expectations of financial capital. Excited economists are just warming up for what they call the Fourth Industrial Revolution -- where the next 'big thing' is to invest in a new era of automation. The Banks of England warns that half of all UK jobs -- yes, that's about 15 million jobs, folks -- that are likely to be replaced by automation over the next two decades. Key jobs to go will include, administrative, clerical and production tasks - which covers just about most of us.
It is global capitalism that we need to address as a greater priority than EU -- although that does need some work, too. It's the system we need to change, to ensure there is enough for everyone -- and there can be, but we need to make some big changes. This requires a different course.
Opening the lid.
Whether or not we might agree with the outcome -- whether or not we might be happy with the whole shambolic process of the Referendum -- it has exposed some uncomfortable truths about real life in the UK. Not least, the shocking 500% rise in race-hate related crime. What have we unleashed?
There are clearly some harbouring racist tendencies, but I can't help thinking that if we have plenty of jobs and good money, most people are less inclined to worry about their new immigrant neighbours. Let's get down to it -- this is all about money, and whether people feel they have their fair share of it, or not.
The harsh economic reality is there, if you choose to look. More than a quarter of the wealth created in Britain over the past fifteen years has ended up in the pockets of the richest 1% of people. We also know that UK has the fastest growing gap between rich and poor in the so-called developed world. This means that a minority are getting richer, while the majority are becoming less well off.
Real wages fell every year between 2009 and 2014, the longest decline since the mid-1800s. TUC research shows average (median) pay is £2,270 less than it was in 2008 -- the equivalent of a £44 per week shortfall.
Meanwhile, the cost of living has increased by 25% between 2008 and 2013 -- and by the next general election, it is likely to be the first time since 1931 when living standards in the UK are lower than at any previous election.
People have been hurting for way too long -- while the political elite just carries on, regardless: nobody seems to be listening. Parties of all sides are engaged in a managerial debate about which side is best, or the least worse, at managing the economy within their conventional framing of what good looks like. But, their version of what good looks like -- and what is really happening, are worlds apart. The real vote on 23rd June was against austerity and exclusion, by people with little hope, or other form of recourse.
The truth had to come out, even if it did so for the wrong reasons. Otherwise, we remain in danger that the elite will continue pretending that all is well, more-or-less. But, let's be clear; removing ourselves from the EU will not solve any of our economic problems. And so, to the real job at hand - and while do need to open up a real debate on re-structuring Europe - even more importantly, we need to rebuild our economies for shared prosperity.
It's the economy, stupid.
That capitalism needs to be run in more responsible and inclusive ways is already the subject of a huge debate. Responsible, conscious, inclusive -- there are many varieties and mutations emerging. To be honest, I don't care what we call it, but I do care on what really happens on the ground. Any change needs to real and authentic -- not just applying more sticking plasters, or offering minor concessions, that deliver little in the way of real improvements in our daily lives. We need to feel the difference; any more con-tricks, and people will get seriously mad.
What people really want, are good jobs, good wages, good prospects, real purpose and hope - not empty rhetoric and failed promises. We might all find that we are surprisingly more tolerant of other things if we have these essentials in place -- and conversely, we can all too easily duped, if we do not. We need to shape a vibrant economic system that generates enough opportunity and prosperity for all - built on responsible trade, and within planetary boundaries.
The fault lines are now so exposed, we will have to completely re-build our economy, addressing key issues that have been swept under the carpet since the 2008 crash. This means facing up to some serious questions: How can we deliver responsible growth in the 21st century? How do we generate real jobs and lasting prosperity? How do we rebalance economy -- as was promised -- with a greater emphasis on manufacturing and export, and a move away from financial services, retail and real estate development? How will we reboot investment, financing what we need -- not just what gives investors the highest return? The mainstream of banking has been patched up -- but why isn't money flowing into the real economy to create new jobs? And, how do we deliver shared prosperity - not just wealth for the privileged few? Our political discourse needs to start shifting through the gears -- and shed some ideological baggage, along the way.
There is no doubt, the future design for our economy will involve some form of re-localisation, and a more balanced approach to globalisation. As Gordon Brown announced this week, we need a system that works for all -- and so his call for an all-party review of globalisation should be welcomed.
There has been lots of talk about fixing roofs, in the past, but little about the real job of fixing foundations. In UK politics, at this time, there is a real danger of rearranging deckchairs - a managerial focus on the symptoms and a contest for who is best at dealing with immigration and budget deficits: more of the same, and possibly even worse.
We must deal with the real uses and underlying causes -- not just the symptoms. These are not easy challenges, and we will encounter some difficulties -- dealing with growth and debt being key interrelated issues -- but the solutions are all out there, although many are currently off the mainstream radar.
Re-planning the plan.
In truth, this level of planning should have been done before even attempting to resign from the EU - or more ideally, before opening up a progressive discussion on restructuring. Only armed with this detail could we even start to think about which powers, activities and decisions could or should be repatriated. Some things might still be done best through collective activity.
A binary in-out choice did not really express what was needed. We can only hope the door is still open to some rethinking within the EU. We really would do better to collaborate and leverage off the efforts of our EU counterparts, rather than attempting to fix global capitalism in isolation.
We need to shift the mainstream conversation -- away from maximising the interests of financial capital, to developing an economy where people and businesses are able to flourish, within planetary boundaries. We had a huge wake-up up in 2008 -- we changed very little -- and so we now have one more chance to get it right.
The future has come at us -- fast and messy -- and in the wrong order -- we now have to engage in a progressive discussion and mobilise for a Quieter Revolution.
Mike Townsend is founder and CEO of business consultancy/thinktank Earthshine, and author of The Quiet Revolution (Greenleaf, forthcoming).