Less than six months ago Europe’s political future looked more than dismal. The staunchest European ally, the United States of America, just had elected an unpredictable populist with no or low regard for the European Union and Nato. France was on the verge of sending a right-wing extremist into the Elysée. The Netherlands were riled up by another right winger who enthralled himself in xenophobic rhetoric. And Germany was facing a victory in the upper double digits of a right-wing anti-refugee party in the parliamentary elections in September. Brexit, Putin and Erdogan were completing the disastrous scenario.
That was in the fall of 2016. In the summer of 2017 things look rather different. France is save, the Netherlands are save, Germany most likely also will be spared any surprises. A significant wave of reason seems to have arrived in Europe preventing at least the most horrific outcome. Why is that? There is a name attached to that development. It’s the name of Donald J. Trump.
Trump is the eye opener for many in Europe when it comes to what we have, what we achieved and what we want to preserve. The US president with his disruptive style of doing politics is telling a story. It’s a story of what is at stake - and it is telling of the fragility of the system we thought we knew so well. It is proof that a single person can shake a society to the core. A democratic system that was believed to stand on solid ground.
Why did it take a disruptor like Trump to make that clear? Because Europe way too long was unable to reform itself, unwilling to question the path it is on while at the same time belittling its achievements. Now the movement “Pulse Of Europe” every week is bringing together hundreds of thousands in the European capitals who are taking to the streets demonstrating in favor of Europe. This movement is unthinkable without Trump. Before Trump it was simply not cool to speak out for a Europe that had brought peace and did away with most of its borders. A Europe that has seen no major wars since 72 years - unprecedented in history. In particular many of the young generation took peace and prosperity as a God-given fact. Trump opened their eyes: There is something to lose.
But there is more to it. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor seems to seize the moment renewing the ties with France. The election of Emmanuel Macron is providing a unique opportunity. Macron and his cabinet are probably the most German-friendly French government in years. With the UK soon out, the complicated construction called EU needs a fundamental makeover. And as painful as that now may read: Without the UK the renovation of the EU probably is easier to accomplish than with the British. The Brits never felt at home in the EU and time and again were putting the brakes on efforts to overcome the many deficiencies.
Merkel knows: This time Macron won the elections. But what will be in five years is the big unknown. Marine Le Pen of the Front national will still be there waiting in the wings. Macron has to deliver to get back those French voters who feel left behind. Thanks to Trump this time a majority of the French was deterred to go down the disruptive path. But the Trump effect will lose its impact at some point. Therefore time is of the essence.
The list of achievements that have to be preserved is quite clear - and it is getting clearer the more the US president is tearing them down. The Paris agreement on fighting climate change now tops the list, followed by free trade, providing a comprehensive social net, fighting autocrats and standing up against the destruction of an independent media and an independent judiciary.
This is Europe’s chance to establish itself as the alternative concept to the backward-looking America Donald J. Trump wants to turn the US into. That’s why Europe’s success is of utter importance. Not only for Europe itself - but also for the US. There will be a time after Trump. A time when the US may need a Europe that has not turned its back on the future.
