CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten on Thursday revealed the “hidden Democratic advantage” that could aid the party in the 2026 midterms: Democrats are “more certain to vote.”
Enten highlighted new Marquette University Law School polling that showed Democrats held an advantage (+5 points) on a generic congressional ballot. Among those certain to vote, the party had a greater advantage over the GOP (+9 points).
“These numbers should be truly frightening to Republicans,” said Enten, who noted that the Marquette figures match other polls on “huge Democratic enthusiasm” leading up to the midterms.
“What this suggests is Democrats are far more likely to turn out at this point,” he added. “A nine-point advantage ― going from 5 to 9 ― that is A+, two thumbs up, great news for Democrats.”
Early-cycle midterm polling also found that Democrats were “more likely to turn out and vote” in next year’s elections, a change from the previous five midterms when Republicans were more certain to vote than Democrats, per Enten.
Later in the segment, Enten observed that polls had underestimated 2025 Democratic victories by New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill (who won by +8 points) and Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger (who won by +5 points) in their respective races.
“You combine that with the generic ballot poll that we saw from [the] Marquette University poll, Republicans should be running scared,” Enten said. “Democrats should be ecstatic because if this polling holds, it will be a huge November 2026 for Democrats.”
H/T: Mediaite