The Oakland Raiders haven’t been to the playoffs since 2002. They play in the most obsolete professional sports stadium in North America and they might be moving to Las Vegas sometime in the near future.
And yet, with loads of uncertainty around the direction of the franchise, GM Reggie McKenzie ― whose Raiders have won a measly 14 of 48 games since he took over in 2012 ― has compiled one of the most talented young crops of personnel in the NFL. Last season, with a second-year quarterback who used to be more famous for his older brother’s accomplishments than his own, the Silver and Black went 7-9 ― hardly a reason to celebrate, but one of the league’s best improvements nevertheless.
One season later, the Raiders enter Week 1 with monumental expectations, hoping to snap the league’s second-longest postseason drought, and perhaps even enter this year’s realm of Super Bowl contenders.
With that in mind, let’s try and determine whether such hopes are realistic.
The Derek Carr Rise
Derek Carr’s meteoric climb to the upper echelon of starting quarterbacks is as rare as it is impressive. He is extremely mobile, but in a multifaceted way: He can run for yards, but he also uses his legs to extend play and he’s accurate on the move. Additionally, with an improved offensive line after McKenzie (who himself was recently rewarded with a four-year contract extension) signed the versatile and talented Kelechi Osemele, he should be protected as well.
If we go back to 2014, the prime concern with Carr coming out of Fresno State was that his numbers were inflated by a spread offense against inferior competition. Moreover, as we’ve already seen with No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff and the Rams, transitioning from the shotgun to under center while also learning how to make correct pre-snap reads presents a hefty challenge. Carr caught on quicker than anticipated and his numbers from year one to year two improved across the board, including his completion percentage (58 to 61) and his touchdown passes (21 to 32.) Head coach Jack Del Rio will lean on his third-year quarterback for even more in 2016, and needs him to cut down on his pick-sixes in turn.
ACDC
Carr was buoyed by the outstanding play of rookie wide receiver Amari Cooper, who earned himself a Pro Bowl nod. Cooper ― who at Alabama won the Biletnikoff Award, given annually to college football’s best receiver, and was the fourth overall pick in the 2015 draft ― was a revelation. As a route runner, Cooper, who roomed with Carr in training camp, possesses a prodigious understanding of how to shake free of coverage, and we can expect him to cut down on his 10 drops, which are tied as the second-most in the NFL. The young wideout still managed to haul in 72 balls for nearly 1,100 yards (Oakland’s first 1K receiver in a decade), while flashing the rare ability to turn small gains into game-changing plays.
Even still, Cooper expects more of himself. In February, he told HuffPost: “Of course [I hit a wall]. I feel like being in my rookie season, I wasn’t as aware as some veterans on how to take care of my body. How my body would feel after a certain amount of time.” In turn, we can expect more from the 22-year-old in 2016, which only means more good things for Carr.
Defense Wins Championships
To quote Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells, “Defense wins championships.” In fact, according to ESPN The Magazine, “six of the past nine Super Bowl champions boasted a higher defensive efficiency than offensive efficiency.”
Last season, the Raiders’ defense posted middling numbers ― including the NFL’s seventh-worst pass defense ― but the young talent was obvious. Mckenzie added to that talent by signing pass-rushing linebacker Bruce Irvin away from Seattle. He drafted West Virginia safety Karl Joseph, an athletic marvel. Joseph is a thumper too and will be tasked with replacing future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson, who retired. Additionally, Mckenzie inked veteran strong safety Reggie Nelson (eight picks last season) and the physically imposing cornerback Sean Smith (four years, $38 million), both of whom should start and make life tough on Philip Rivers, Alex Smith and Trevor Siemian.
Of course, the centerpiece of the Oakland defense is third-year defensive end/linebacker Khalil Mack, who accomplished something not even Lawrence Taylor, Deion Sanders or Reggie White could manage: He became the first player in NFL history to make the AP All-Pro first team at two different positions in the same year. Mack’s relentless pursuit of the quarterback and remarkable range is otherworldly. At 25 years old, he’s just getting started.
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