Those seeking definitive authority either for staying in Iraq or for leaving will be disappointed in the forthcoming Petraeus report. It would be a very great surprise if General Petraeus concludes that we have failed and should withdraw forthwith on the one hand, or finds that the vaunted "surge" is working so well that we can foresee victory in the foreseeable future on the other hand. Instead, like the war itself, this report will claim some success and, reluctantly, point to areas where progress has been limited.
This leaves open the question of what the fence-sitters, those suspending judgment until this report comes in, will do now. Assuming the report does not offer a solid conclusion of victory or failure, the votes still needed to end U.S. combat operations are right where they've been for months-blowing in the wind. There are very few examples in history where complex political and moral judgments have been resolved by some God-like authority.
This is even truer when the observer-authority has a stake in the outcome. Whatever General Petraeus thinks about the Iraq invasion deep in his soul, he would not be a senior military commander if he did not believe his soldiers could overcome almost any obstacle, including bitter insurgency, and if he did not take orders from civilian authority. For him to say, Let's pack up and go, would be a vote of no-confidence in his troops and in himself. Don't expect it.
On the other hand, wouldn't it be interesting, to say the least, if General Petraeus's report said this:
Mr. President:
The United States Army and Marine Corps achieved their principal mission of overthrowing Saddam Hussein and his government. We did so with dispatch and minimum loss of life. We were then confronted with a massive insurgency which U.S. civilian officials, including yourself, did not anticipate and for which we have not been given adequate personnel and resources. There is little if any prospect of resolving this insurgency anytime in the next decade, if not longer. Further, continued engagement in Iraq's civil war distracts us from our most urgent mission in Afghanistan and erodes our stature in the world. Therefore, it is my recommendation that all U.S. forces be withdrawn from Iraq in an orderly but expeditious manner. In the event that this recommendation is not accepted, I have attached my letter of resignation from the United States Army.
David Petraeus
General, United States Army