The Saudis have announced that the kingdom is "willing" and "prepared" to send its troops to Syria. While they have said their goal of putting boots on the ground in Syria would be to "fight IS," the timing of the kingdom's announcement raises questions about its motives.
The military landscape in Syria is sharply changing in favor of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the fall of which the Saudis vehemently seek. The Syrian government has made major gains against the opposition in recent weeks, including breaking the four-year-long siege of the Shiite-populated towns of Nubl and Al-Zahra, which could practically lead to the completion of Aleppo's siege and its fall from the opposition's control.
Another sign raising suspicions about the Saudis' real motive behind the possible move is the statements made by Khaled Khoja, the President of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. "Intervention by friends, especially Arab friends, to support the Syrian resistance and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was necessary since the beginning of direct confrontations between the FSA and Shiite militias on the one hand, and against ISIS on the other. After the Russian intervention, however, this matter has become crucial," he remarked.
Iran does not view Saudi Arabia's declaration a serious one. Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), mocked the Saudis and said, "They claim they will send troops [to Syria], but I don't think they will dare do so." However, the possibility does not appear unlikely. Saudi officials have told CNN that they have amassed an army of 150,000 troops to invade Syria.
Familiarity with the Syrian battlefield, confirmed by an Associated Press report, reveals that Saudi ground forces "would almost certainly have to enter from the Turkish border, close to the area where Syrian government troops and allied militiamen have been advancing under cover of blistering Russian airstrikes." Therefore, if the Saudis intervene, the proxy wars that Iran and Saudi Arabia have been waging would suddenly become very real and could potentially lead to a direct conflict between Saudi troops and the Iranian-backed forces, including the National Defense Forces (NDF) and Hezbollah of Lebanon. The mess could drag other Sunni Arab nations into that war against Shia Iran and transform to a full-fledged regional war. What the reactions of the United States and Russia would be, remains to be seen.
On another front, Erdogan has hinted that Turkey could enter the war on the anti-Assad forces' side. On February 7, he said, "What's going on in Syria can only go on for so long. At some point it has to change." On February 10, Turkish PM Ahmet Davutoglu pledged to return a "historical debt" to Turkey's "Aleppo brothers." At a meeting of his party, he said, "We will return our historic debt. At one time, our brothers from Aleppo defended our cities [during the First World War, and] ... now we will defend the heroic Aleppo. All of Turkey stands behind its defenders." Russian military spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov had already said that "we have significant evidence to suspect Turkey is in the midst of intense preparations for a military invasion into Syria's sovereign territory."
What is perplexing with Davutoglu's remarks is that if Turkey is determined to fight ISIS and eradicate the group, why choose Aleppo as a target rather than the caliphate capital, Raqqa?
Since last year's downing of the Russian fighter jet, Russia-Turkey relations have deteriorated to the "worst [point] in decades," and there is "no way to improve [relations] for now," as the Kremlin recently suggested.
Erdogan is making every effort to escalate Turkey's conflict with Russia, as was his objective in shooting down the Russian jet. In that incident, he hoped to provoke Russia into a knee-jerk response and thus pull the country into a conflict with NATO. The move was thought to have been motivated by a desire to reverse his and Turkey's declining fortunes in the Syrian war.
Another development which has made the Turks extremely furious is that according to RUDAW reports, Russian air strikes have allowed Syrian Kurdish guerilla group, People's Protection Units (YPG), gain territory against anti-Assad forces in northern Syria.
"What are you doing in Syria? You're essentially an occupier," Erdogan said, addressing Russian President Vladimir Putin a few days ago.
This time it seems that Turkey is attempting a more adventurous route by invading Syria. It should not come as a surprise that if in the coming days the world were to wake up to the news about a insane military move by Turkey, be it a ground invasion or a military intervention. Such a miscalculation could bring the world to the brink of a global horrific war. The warring in Aleppo, which can potentially determine the fate of the Syrian war, is just about over, as suggested by an insurgent group. "Our whole existence is now threatened, not just losing more ground. They are advancing and we are pulling back because in the face of such heavy aerial bombing [by Russia] we must minimize our losses," remarked a rebel from a major insurgency group.