It’s time for a reality check on turkeys.
Grocery bills have risen higher over the past few months, and many Americans are worrying about the cost of Thanksgiving. To help, some retailers are offering promotions: Walmart, for instance, is selling a “holiday meal basket” that serves 10 people for around $40, which it says is its “most affordable holiday meal yet.”
President Donald Trump took credit for the deal this week, posting on Truth Social: “Walmart just announced that Prices for a Thanksgiving Dinner is now down 25% since under Sleepy/Crooked Joe Biden, in 2024. AFFORDABILITY is a Republican Stronghold. Hopefully, Republicans will use this irrefutable fact!”
In Walmart’s announcement, the company didn’t make any comparisons to Thanksgiving prices last year, or mention inflation (or former President Biden). And Trump’s claim isn’t entirely accurate.
Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal was a little pricier last year at $7 per person (serving eight people), but it featured 29 items, including a turkey. The 2025 meal averages about $4 per person, and while it feeds two extra people, it features only 23 items, including a $0.97-per-pound turkey (last year, the company offered turkeys at $0.88 per pound).
This comes as food-at-home prices increased by 2.7% from September 2024 to September 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index. Since then, though, there’s been a government shutdown, and millions aren’t receiving their SNAP benefits. There’s also continuous back-and-forth on tariffs.
“I can’t think of anybody I’ve talked to who has recently not lamented about the cost of food at the grocery store, and the impact of your dollar not going as far,” Jada Thompson, an associate professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness at the University of Arkansas, told HuffPost.
And, shopping for Thanksgiving “might be a little harder this year,” she said.
About 40% of grocery shoppers said they’re concerned about the prices of the foods they need for holiday meals (and gifts), and nearly half said they plan to devote the largest portion of their holiday budgets to food this year, according to a survey conducted in late September by FMI/The Food Industry Association.
Even so, 89% of the shoppers surveyed said they’re “at least somewhat excited” to celebrate Thanksgiving this year, and two-thirds plan to serve turkey with mashed potatoes, stuffing and a warm vegetable side dish.
So what can you expect when you head to the supermarket ahead of Thanksgiving? Here’s what experts say.
How much will turkeys cost? (More)
Turkey is the centerpiece of most Thanksgivings, and it will likely be more expensive this year. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimated that wholesale turkey prices increased about 40% as of early October, mainly due to avian influenza and other diseases affecting the industry.
Wholesale prices are a “good benchmark” for what you can expect to pay at the grocery store, but turkey prices may vary from shop to shop, Bernt Nelson, an economist at AFBF, told HuffPost. Overall, he notes, “Prices are up.”
Higher wholesale prices tend to suggest higher retail prices, Joseph Balagtas, an agricultural economics professor and director of the Center for Food Demand Analysis and Sustainability at Purdue University, told HuffPost. An analysis by the center estimates that retail turkey prices could average $2.05 per pound in November, 25% higher than in 2024. So, a 15-pound turkey could cost around $31.
“But, there’s a big range around the average retail price for turkeys,” Balagtas said. For instance, organic or pasture-raised turkey typically costs more, and many retailers offer discounts as they compete for holiday food shoppers.
Most of the turkey consumed in the U.S. is produced domestically, but the U.S. does import and export some turkey, Nelson said, so tariffs likely aren’t significantly impacting actually growing turkeys.
However, Thompson said tariffs could have “indirect impacts.” For example, farmers may be seeing increases in the cost of supplies, packaging and fuel necessary to produce turkeys.
What about sides, desserts and other staples? (Likely more)
With grocery prices higher than last year, it’s likely that many of the foods you’ll purchase for Thanksgiving dinner will be more expensive, too.
For example, sugar and sweets prices increased 6.7% from September 2024 to September 2025 (which is the most recent data available), according to the BLS. Balagtas said this is due to weather events in cocoa-growing regions and exacerbated by tariffs or tariff uncertainty.
Bakery products, including bread, cakes and cookies, increased 2.7%, and fresh fruits and vegetables are 1.2% higher overall, with potatoes 3.7% more expensive, according to the BLS.
Green beans and tomatoes, many of which are imported from Mexico, will also likely be more expensive this Thanksgiving, Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, told HuffPost.
But some foods are actually cheaper. Frozen vegetable prices are 0.7% lower this year. Egg prices are 1.3% lower, and fats and oils are 1.7% less expensive.
Tips for reducing your Thanksgiving costs
Despite the rising prices, you can still make a cost-effective holiday meal, Thompson said. “This is where we look for the deals and try not to overproduce.”
As Thanksgiving approaches, retailers will likely offer promotions on turkeys and other meal staples, Nelson said.
Along with Walmart, Aldi is offering a Thanksgiving bundle serving 10 for $40. Target is selling a holiday meal for four for about $20.
A few other ways to save money on your Thanksgiving meal include:
- Choosing a smaller turkey to reduce the overall cost.
- Making smaller portions (or fewer dishes overall) that require fewer ingredients.
- Opting for frozen fruits and vegetables, which may be a little cheaper.
- Comparing prices: Store brands may be cheaper than name brands.
- Looking for discounts on turkeys and other holiday foods, or searching online for discount codes and coupons.
- Shopping early to get the best deals.
- Asking guests to bring a dish to spread out the overall meal cost.
Ultimately, even though turkeys and other items are pricier this year, “that doesn’t mean we can’t have festivities,” Thompson said. “That means we will probably have to try to adjust those festivities for a tighter budget this year.”