The Great Wheel of American Political Punditry takes four agonizing years to complete its cycle. We've just entered one of its most amusing and riveting phases: the Pre-Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina Scenario Frenzy. At this point everyone has enough data -- polling, fundraising, number of volunteers in Ottumwa, Nashua and Aiken -- to issue confident predictions about who is going to win the nomination and how. Of course nobody really knows, and almost everybody will be wrong about everything. But this is the moment of maximum sort-of knowledge and minimum actual results.
Rather than committing to any one of these scenarios (we are no more clairvoyant than anyone else), First to Last here offers a compendium of Wild (GOP) Scenarios, in approximate descending order of likelihood. A real, honest-to-goodness, multiballot floor fight is every reporter's dream, but the last time there was anything even close to that was 40 years ago, in Kansas City. We have hopes for Cleveland in 2016, but there is a greater chance that Donald Trump will buy the entire convention venue.