In 2008, ballot initiatives could impact races up and down the ballot, including the Presidential campaign.
While their value in mobilizing turnout in a Presidential year will be limited because the national election will be driving turnout on its own, a ballot initiative's impact in 2008 will more likely hinge on its capacity to elevate an issue and shape the debate of a state, or even the national election.
The big question is whether people are buying what the ballot initiatives are selling. In order to answer this question it's worth taking a look at how a particular initiative aligns with the mood of the electorate.
Based on public opinion research we have conducted with independent, "swing" voters, here is what we know:
➢Voters head into this election season with serious concerns about the country and a strong feeling that the country is a rudderless boat, lacking leadership and drifting without direction.
➢Voters feel America is falling behind and that it is no longer likely that we will pass on a better future to the next generation.
➢Voters are ready to respond to big challenges in their lives. They know there are problems and want to address them.
Voter dissatisfaction presents an opportunity for ballot initiatives. Skeptical that the politicians will lead, voters can see ballot initiatives as a means to fill the leadership vacuum by allowing citizens to take issues into their own hands.
As usual, there are number of right-wing efforts to divide and distract voters with ballot initiatives that include banning equal opportunity programs for women and minorities; attacking a woman's right to make her own health care decisions; discriminating against gays and lesbians on marriage and adoption; and cutting vital services like education and health care for those that need it most, just to name a few.
In an election cycle where the choice for voters will be change versus more of the same, this is not the sort of change people are looking for. These initiatives are from the same page of an old right-wing playbook that offers nothing more than the same divisiveness people have had enough of.
Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Mr. Bush's campaign in 2004, put it best speaking about the California marriage discrimination initiative when he said:
"At best, it doesn't move voters, and at worst for Republicans, it moves them against them. Not so much on the issue, but it becomes, 'Why are we having a discussion on this issue when we should be talking about things that matter, like the economy, or health care, or the war?'"
What people are looking for is not more division but rather solutions that advance the common good. That is why progressives should feel good about some of the ballot initiatives moving across the country: renewable energy and home health care in Missouri; paid sick leave in Ohio and Milwaukee; children's health care in Montana; and universal health care and stem cell research in Michigan.
The contrasts in approach to ballot initiatives couldn't be clearer. Whereas progressives are advancing bottom-up efforts to improve people's lives, the right-wing clings to a top-down strategy of dropping out-of-state money and activists into states with the intention to write their extreme and narrow ideology into state constitutions.
In a change election, people are not looking to turn back the clock, they are looking to move forward together.
Link here for the full Trendlines report.
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