THE BLOG

Population Explosion

The 20th century experienced the highest population growth in all human history that according to current projections, there won't be another singular century that will double its population at least not in the next 150 years. What happened in the 20th century, and are there correlations between population with economics and politics in today's world?

As we jump into this subject, first I will mention that there are no exact or 100% accurate figures, but this research from UN, Worldometers and various sources, gives us a perspective of the past, present and future.

Now, let's go way back, at the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000 year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.

A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.

In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.

Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.

Population in the world is currently growing at a rate of around 1.13% per year. The current average population change is estimated at around 80 million per year. According to the most recent United Nations estimates, the human population of the world is expected to reach 8 billion people in the spring of 2024.

Annual growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at 2% and above. The rate of increase has therefore almost halved since its peak of 2.19 percent, which was reached in 1963.

The annual growth rate is currently declining and is projected to continue to decline in the coming years. Currently, it is estimated that it will become less than 1% by 2020 and less than 0.5% by 2050.

This means that world population will continue to grow in the 21st century, but at a slower rate compared to the recent past. World population has doubled (100% increase) in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion). It is now estimated that it will take a further 39 years to increase by another 50%, to become 9 billion by 2038.

Before our minds feed us wrong information, we should be aware of child survival is close to 100% in the developing world, meaning large families will remain like that for a while. The work of The Gates Foundation is where is again recognized, they play a major role in this facet.

Secondly, family planning comes into play, it might be that developed countries highly consider family planning than their counterparts in emerging markets.

The number of people leaving in dare poverty and child mortality has been decreasing more quickly than ever before in history. Life expectancy has increased, AIDS infection is not spreading as quick as it used to be, and more importantly it is manageable than before.

Population is increasing, but jobs are being eliminated by automation and technology, but productivity is at an all-time high.

Let's highlight this important aspect of society, as it relates to religion, Christianity is leading with 31%, followed by Muslims 23%, No Religion affiliation 16%, Hindus 15%, Buddhists 7% etc, but lastly there are Jews at 0,2%.

As it relates to economics and politics, more numbers don't guarantee political stability, nor do they ensure that all top 10 to 20, are developed economies, as most in the top 20 are emerging economies.

A snapshot at the top two countries by population, and the bottom two; China and India are the only countries with over a billion people each, their average age is 37 years in China and 27 years in India, while their urban population being 57.9 % and 32.4 % respectively.

Now, the bottom two, I'm only acknowledging their population, Tokelau with 1,276 and Holy See with 801 total population.

A crucial trend in developed countries, is that the middle class has rapidly grown, as the middle class is the bedrock of any economy, because of their spending power and level of education; and for any emerging economy to fast track their growth, they need to increase their middle class pool.

Spending disparities between the lower class and high class are widening, the lower class spend 100% of their income and a bit more in debt from financiers, the higher class would spend a small fraction of their multiple income streams; there is an imbalance not only from a capitalistic perspective, but from various fronts.

There is this statement with a negative connotation to it, it states that, 'The rich keep making more money while the poor keep making more babies'. As sarcastic as it sounds, there is a level of truth in it.

Urbanization has been one of the major movements in the last century. Politicians should consider slowing migration to cities by urbanizing those rural under developed regions, and bring technological development, industrialize them to create jobs where they are, because one of the key motivating factors to move to cities, is employment and pursuit of a better life.

Wellness of our countries should be measured by GNH (Gross National Happiness), than GDP; what good it is to have a large economy in air polluted areas like some parts of China, terrorist threatened regions like some countries in Europe, the analogy continues.

The conundrum is, there is a correlation between poor countries having an exponential population growth, not through migration like other developed countries such as USA; but poorer countries increase population rapidly than developed economies such as Japan with an aging population. With that in mind, what are we saying indirectly when we state Africa will outperform every continent in the next 34 years in population growth?

UN reported, with the highest rate of population growth, Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth between 2015 and 2050.

One may ask, how many human beings ever existed? It has been estimated that a total of approximately 106 billion people have been born since the dawn of the human species, making the population currently alive roughly 6% of all people who have ever lived on planet Earth.