Rove, Nate Silver Maps Predict Obama Blowout

Rove, Nate Silver Maps Predict Obama Blowout

On his website, Republican strategist Karl Rove writes:

The final Rove & Co. electoral map of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow, the largest electoral margin since 1996.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain.

The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain's column since he's benefited from recent movement in the state


FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver agrees that "it looks like a pretty clear Obama win unless there's something really wrong with the polling, which has happened before, let's not forget New Hampshire, but it's more a polling problem than anything McCain can really do at this point to win the election." (Silver also cautions that everyone should ignore the exit polls.)

Read more election predictions here and on the ground reports here.

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