For three decades, certain key events that brewed up in 1979 have created simmering in the Middle East. Obama steps in right when they're all at full boil, forcing him to decide whether to stir the pot, season the contents or turn off the flame.
I don't know just how closely Barack Obama was watching the news when he was eighteen years old, but I'm pretty sure he had no idea how vastly the events of 1979 would affect the presidency thirty years later. The showdowns, blowups, treaties and alliances formed that year - from the first formal diplomatic relations between the US and Mainland China to the fall of Cambodia's Khmer Rouge (driven out by the America's enemies the Vietnamese) couldn't begin to even hint at the ramifications that would play out for decades to come. And nowhere were these headline grabbers more intense or have longer-lasting consequences than in the Middle East.
The short list:
The Iranian Revolution: Enraged by the Shah's deceptions, the brutality of his secret service SAVAK, his coolness towards (and occasional deportations of) clerics, and not real happy about his poorly-performing economy (that he'd promised would soon overtake Germany's), Iran's merchants and students rise up to bring in Ayatollah Khomeini (who set up an Islamic government with him at the head) and toss the Shah, who'd been anointed policeman of the Gulf by the US. Alas, the US had armed the Shah with an impressive cache of arms (the administration of Jimmy Carter - who was attacked by a bunny that year - seriously contemplated just asking Iran to give them back) but they were soon put to use in fighting Iraq in an eight-year war that killed over a million. Khomeini also supported students who held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days, leading to the shredding of US-Iranian diplomatic relations. The US later had military skirmishes with Iran in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq war, and shot down an Iranian commercial liner, Flight 655, killing 290.
Lingering Probs for Obama: Diplomatic relations are still not restored, trade is minimal (we do sell them cigarettes, but lost a supplier of oil and major arms client), and Iran now pulls weight in Iraq, where the Bush administration claimed they were providing weapons to insurgents (a disputed claim). The Islamic republic of Iran is now developing nuclear energy (using its own enriched uranium facilities), which unsettles the US, Israel and others, who fear that they really want nuclear weapons. Also problematic: the US frets about the safety of oil tankers squeezing past Iran in the narrow Strait of Hormuz, while Iranians are still hacked off about Flight 655 (for which the US never apologized), the US siding with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War, the lack of international outrage when Saddam used chemical weapons on Iranians, and even 1953's Operation Ajax, when the CIA helped toss Iran's prime minister Mossadegh, believe to be commie (and also putting into motion plans to nationalize Iran's oil production).
Saddam Hussein muscled his way into the president's seat: When Iraq's president Ahmed Hassan al-Bakr made plans to tightly align Iraq with Syria and its president Hafez al-Asad - thereby pushing Vice President Hussein into the back seat - Saddam shoved out his uncle Ahmed, forcing Bakr's and Asad's resignation. Among Saddam's first acts: declaring war on Iran, a bloody eight-year debacle which would ultimately put him in debt for billions to wealthy Arab countries, including Kuwait. At least partly as a result of that debt (made all the more burdensome since Kuwait was slant-drilling into Iraqi territory, he claimed), Saddam forcefully annexed Kuwait in 1990 - an event that would first bring the US military big time into the Gulf, where it has ever since remained, the presence only increasing with the US-led invasion to topple Saddam in 2003.
Lingering problems for Obama: Post-Saddam Iraq is still a mess (though calming down somewhat, we're told) and the US military presence there and throughout the Gulf isn't appreciated by many. While we are now buying Iraq's oil - and may soon be operating some fields - the cost of the 2003 war when all is said and done, will likely exceed $3 trillion.
Saudi Radicals Seize the Grand Mosque in Mecca: What really went down and how many were killed when Saudi zealots overtook the holiest mosque in Mecca, the holiest city for Muslims, for two weeks remains a mystery, but one thing is for sure: it nearly got the royals tossed for looking like bad caretakers of the Prophet Mohammed's birthplace. King Fahd immediately added the title of "Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques" - the other mosque is in second-holiest site Medina - and the royals were forced to fork over more power (and more mullah) to the religious establishment, which in turn opened more madrassas - religious schools that indoctrinate the young with the most rigid form of Islam, the Saudi state religion, Wahhabism.
Lingering Probs for Obama: The still-powerful religious elite loathes any Western, modernizing presence in Saudi Arabia (necessary for oil and security) - making our deals with Saudi Arabia (which provides 8 percent of US oil) trickier, and it still indoctrinates young 'uns with a deep dislike of infidels, one reason why so many of the 9/11 hijackers came from here. The royals (whom the US has armed to the hilt) still might get tossed, and then who knows what hell will break loose.
The Soviets invaded Afghanistan: Seeking a warm water port, and perhaps pipelines, the Soviet Union fearlessly rolled into Muslim-dominated Afghanistan. Jimmy Carter adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski devised a brilliant plan - of arming Arab religious warriors (many from Saudi Arabia) to fight the Soviets to free their fellow Muslims and using Pakistan's secret service, the ISI, to train them. The plan was further helped along by the Reagan administration - and Wahhabism was part of the holy warrior training. Good news: the Soviets gave up (eight years later) and put those tanks in reverse, an event believed to have contributed to the breakup of the Union. Bad news: the holy Muslim warriors, mujahideen, wanted to keep fighting and hung on to their weapons.
Lingering probs for Obama: The mujahideen banded together to form numerous militant groups - including al Qaeda -- who threaten the US as well as American allies from Saudi Arabia to Jordan; many are now in Yemen. Afghanistan, which was left to rot after the war, become home of the Taliban, brought to power by Saudi Arabia, which liked their religious bent - and became training ground central for militants. Even though the Bush administration brought down the Taliban, they're still around, and Afghanistan is a seething mess.
The Egyptian-Israeli Peace Treaty was signed. The Camp David Agreement, brokered by Jimmy Carter, was an earth-shaking land-for-peace deal. Israel gave Egypt back the Sinai Peninsula (captured during the 1967 Arab-Israeli Six Day War), and Egypt became the first Arab country to recognize Israel's right to exist. An added perk: both countries received billions in US arms to play nicey-nice.
Lingering Probs for Obama: Clauses concerning the creation of a Palestinian state were forgotten, leading to ongoing Palestinian unhappiness. Furthermore, taking Egypt -- which holds the Arab world's largest army -- out of the fighting equation meant countries probably wouldn't gang up on Israel as they had in previous wars, a good thing. But in their place, anti-Israel militant groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah sprang up, and have been a threat to Israel ever since. One more headache: the US continues to pay billions of dollars to Israel and to Egypt every year - mostly in the form of free arms. Thus, the US is blamed not only for Israel's military actions, but also for the continuing militarily-enforced dictatorship in Egypt.
After three decades, these events are still exploding in one form or another, this time in Obama's lap. And more than anyone else in recent history, fate calls on Obama to re-examine them all. Given this burden - not to mention the one of the collapsing US economy - Obama may well wish he were 18 and blasting "YMCA" once again.
-- In her new book, What Every American Should Know about the Middle East, Melissa Rossi explores the tumultuous events of 1979 and how they led to the modern Middle East (and much more) in depth.