The historic ruling on gay marriage in California and the rash of weddings and press that have followed in its wake may well serve as the catalyst the Republican Party has been looking for to rally social conservatives behind McCain, who the GOP base, including members of the so-called religious-right, have not been thrilled to endorse. McCain is a long way from the unabashed "saved" evangelical George Bush, who won the enthusiastic support of the base in 2000 and 2004.
The California governor's race of 1982, which has already been a touchstone for election 2008, sheds some light.
Democratic Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley narrowly lost the race to Republican George Deukmejian. Bradley lost by less than 1 percent. Much of the blame for Bradley's loss, in an election where all polls, including exit polls, pointed to a smooth victory, has been placed on what has since been dubbed "The Bradley Effect." According to this theory, prospective voters told pollsters that they would vote for the African-American mayor to hide any signs of inherent racism.
However, there is a lesser-known reason that probably pushed Deukmijian over the top: a ballot proposal that would have restricted the use of firearms that was strongly supported by Bradley and may have riled up conservatives and driven them to the voting booths.
Flash forward two decades later. State ballot proposals to ban same-sex marriages sent social conservatives to the polls in droves in the last presidential election, where they were approved by comfortable margins. It may well have been the deciding factor in Ohio, where a state ballot proposal banning same-sex marriages was approved by 63 percent of the voters, and where Senator John Kerry lost by just 2 percent. Had Kerry won in Ohio, he would probably be running for reelection today, instead of considering a possible position as Secretary of State.
So will this issue hurt Obama in the general election? Obama has not come out in favor of same-sex marriages but does support civil unions. In California, a ballot measure was certified for the November election that would define marriage as a union between a man and a woman, thus banning same-sex marriages. This certification occurred just weeks before the California Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriages (In Re Marriage Cases, May 15, 2008) went into effect (Monday June 16). The last time California voted on this issue, in 2000, 61 percent of voters approved of a ban on same-sex marriages, yet Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore safely secured the state's electoral votes.
Even if the amendment goes down in defeat, or if Obama wins in California, a state where he currently leads by 11 points, the California Supreme Court decision in favor of same-sex marriages has placed the social issue back on voters' list of concerns, particularly among social conservatives. It will no doubt bolster the sentiments of social conservatives across the states and bring out voters who are likely to cast their vote for Senator John McCain, who is an opponent of same-sex marriages and civil unions, as a gift. Even if they have to hold their nose to do so.