Donald Trump will be the nominee of the Republican Party. How he got to be the leader of the Grand 'ole Party of Lincoln and Eisenhower is very important to understand for those who want to stop him from getting to the White House and redecorating it with 24‑carat gold accents and marble walls and ceiling -- or worse -- and positioning the bronze statue of Eros and Psyche at the Diplomatic Entrance.
While the media and political analysts are writing the obituary of the Republican Party and predicting Trump's inevitable loss in November, I'm keen on illuminating his rise and why he might be able to win. In fact, if the Green Party's and the Libertarian Party's candidates are included in national polling, Clinton and Trump are only separated by the margin of error of 3-5 points. So if those opposed to Trump's election do not understand his capacity to bundle four separate messages about his candidacy and his vision for America -- two of which are contradictory -- then egg will be the new daily facial makeup for the pundits who previously declared Trump's candidacy dead on arrival a year ago.
While the pundits are focused on the rift between Trump and the republican establishment, Trump remains laser focused on the rift between millions of voters and their government.
FEAR and ANGER: Most observers understand that Trump is a conduit for the fear and anger crashing across America, although far too many believe he is the cause of it, which blinds them to the reality that millions and millions of voters are suffering. As I pointed out in my Huffington Post posting on April 20, 2016, Trump is not the cause of the fear and anger, but rather, the conditions under which millions of Americans live are the reason for such a tsunami of fear and anger spreading throughout the country.
Trump's is an example of the power of unhappiness -- despair in many areas of America -- to drive and demand change. Of course, his role has not been to cause the unhappiness. He simply reflects back to voters their unhappiness with things as they are and with the establishment that is desperately trying to keep change out of the hallways of congress and out of the corridors of the executive branch.
Even a cursory look at the recent polling on people's attitudes and the lack of their trust for the basic institutions of America makes it clear that there are reasons to be afraid and angry. But unfortunately, Trump throws his own brand of DRUMPF gasoline on the fire that's already been burning for years. In 2010, I wrote about the perfect storm of fear and anger rolling across America.
When over 50 percent of young people between the ages of 18 and 29 believe the American dream is dead, then the future looks as dismal for them as the present is for millions of older voters.
Trump sensed early-on what so many others did not: that millions of primary voters were ready to vote for anyone who seemingly listened to and then reflected and embraced their plight and their earnest demand to overthrow the establishment and make a dramatic change.
GETTING SCREWED: That while Trump is a conduit for these feelings of unhappiness and despair, he's also articulating the feeling that millions and millions of Americans have about getting screwed. Screwed while a very small percentage of the population grows wealthier and while the disparity -- actually a giant gulf between the wealthy and even the middle class -- is staggeringly wide and deep. In fact, today the top 1% own over 50% of the wealth. The bottom 80% own less than 7%.
As a result, it's not surprising that the majority of Americans no longer believe the American dream is alive and possible for their children; tomorrow will not be better for their children than it was for them today.
It's like Reverend Ike, the pastor of decades ago, who told his flock that they would never have the cars, the clothes, the homes, the boats, the women that he had. So it was best, he said, to give him the money and then live vicariously through his life. A bit of an abomination of "prosperity theology," which basically admonishes "forget about the pie in the sky; get yours here and now." Reverend Ike is famous for his "blessing plan" that urged listeners to send him money and then he would bless them. He reassured the listeners that those who sent him greenbacks would be more prosperous. The only difference between Trump and Reverend Ike is that Trump is asking for votes and promising a blessing in return.
SCREWING the SYSTEM: Trump is using his successful gaming of the system as a significant plus and a distinct advantage. Every time an opponent or a member of the media points out yet another example of Trump beating the system, manipulating the system or in some way getting over on the system, his credibility is enhanced. It's hard to even begin to imagine, but in some way he's become the Robin Hood of this election. He is the representative of all those who want to beat the system that's been beating us - beating us down.
Quite remarkable that at any moment, he not only empathizes with those people being screwed, he declares himself to be one of them, he's getting screwed. Yet in another moment, he boasts of how he screws the system himself.
It was so remarkable to me that as he was wrapping up the nomination, and it was clear he had won the primaries, that he declared himself the victim of the Republican National Committee and his opponents in the Congress. Winner and victim, screwer and screwed -- all in the same sentence.
INSPIRATIONAL and ASPIRATIONAL: Trump is both inspirational and aspirational. He declares what everyone knows to be the truth; America is on the decline in many areas. And most importantly, the majority of us see the physical evidence of this decline every day from the rusting and deteriorating bridges to the crumbling and potholed roads to trains breaking down and airports decaying: infrastructure of all sizes and shapes falling apart..
And from this truth, however exaggerated Trump presents it, he promises that he will rebuild America -- and us, our belief in our institutions and the American dream! People know that much of what he says is a falsehood. But they seem to believe -- or simply want to believe -- that he is a builder. So when he talks about the obvious and irrefutable fact that the infrastructure is crumbling and that he can alone rebuild it, it has resonance for millions of voters.
Trump speaks of America, not about the government. He talks about America the country, not rules and regulations and policy. He inspires people to believe that America can be great once again. That alone he can do it - there's no call to service other than "vote for me and I'll take care of everything."
Of course, none of this makes sense, especially since those with any experience in government know that the institutional constraints will prevent Trump from doing almost anything. But Trump's been very clever to stay out of the conversation about government and speak frequently of his track record of beating the system and building "stuff." No matter how loathsome that may be to the basic tenants of ethics and morality, he's convinced people that he can transcend government, our laws, and even the basic rules of life.
In my lifetime, I've never heard a candidate capable of carrying four distinct and often contradictory messages all at the same time. And too, I'm convinced and afraid that his support is broader and deeper than the polls and pundits believe. From my own experience in over 40 years in politics, I know that it is unlikely that many voters are willing to disclose to a pollster whether in person, on the phone or even online that they support Trump primarily because of the implied or explicit, depending on your viewpoint, endorsement of his racism, bigotry and class warfare.
And those who criticize Trump for his lack of knowledge about foreign and military affairs and his ignorance about how the political and legislative process work don't understand that it's dawned on a significant part of the electorate that all those politicians and government officials that claim to know so much about these matters have screwed it all up -- big time, leaving ordinary folks way behind. No one has to like Trump at all to see and understand this feeling.
So when Trump doles out his messages, especially with four doorways for voters to enter, he is a force to be reckoned with. Trump is truly a four-legged stool; mirroring the fear and anger, empathizing with the feeling of being screwed while doing some significant screwing of the system and of people himself, and inspiring a sense that only he can rebuild America and the American Dream.
Quite a remarkable messaging strategy indeed. Whether it remains four-legged or loses one or more of its legs and collapses as his opponents from all sides of the establishment chip away, will be the drama of the next several months.
For those who dismiss Trump, beware. Remember BREXIT.
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Peter Emerson is a writer and an entrepreneur in business, social investment and public policy. He is a founding partner of two firms that provide creative strategies across multiple platforms for a variety of clients. Peter has been involved in every democratic presidential campaign since 1972.