In the wake of Barack Obama's big (and by big, I mean, huge) weekend, and amidst the Clinton campaign staff shake-up, one of the subtexts being pushed by the Clinton campaign is that Obama has become the "establishment" candidate, and that Clinton herself is now the "underdog" in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. What a reversal of fortunes that would be--but I'm not buying it. In fact, the Clinton campaign started pushing that talking point right after Super Tuesday, perhaps hoping that it would lower expectations a touch for the weekend primary and caucuses (cauci?). Her campaign may be right on one account (underdog), but it's not a characterization that she should be particularly proud of trumpeting at this late date.
As Democratic circles are abuzz with and aghast at the potential for Superdelegate shenanigans and backroom deals, we're past the underdog-as-novelty phase and instead are looking to back the candidate with momentum, staying power, and the ability to win in November. That being the case, Mark "Driving Your Campaign Into the Ground for Only $4.3 Million" Penn's decision to push this story line is particularly curious. And I'm not sure that anyone, even Clinton backers, would agree with the notion that by winning states and delegates that Obama has become the "establishment" candidate. There's no clearer proof that the opposite is true than the number of endorsements and Superdelegates that Clinton had sewn up before 2008 even began. But what Mr. Penn's tactic also does is to underscore how woefully unprepared the Clinton campaign was for a contest which would stretch beyond Super Tuesday, her supposed D-Day. So, bracing for the possibility of a drawn-out contest, Penn tried a bit of improv and came up with these Twilight Zone-esque recharacterizations of the candidates.
The Obama-as-establishment and Clinton-as-underdog descriptions were post-Super Tuesday talking points for her campaign, but going forward the task will be how to avoid sliding down that slippery slope from "underdog" to "underwater." And given these rhetorical errors in the past week, perhaps the Clinton campaign chose the wrong staffer (Patty Solis Doyle), as their sacrificial lamb, when that honor should have fallen to Mr. Penn.
This weekend's contests--Nebraska, Washington, Louisiana, Maine, and, lest we forget, the Virgin Islands--did serve to nudge Obama into the fickle frontrunner spot, at least for the moment. And, despite David Axelrod's protestations to the contrary ("We are up against the Clinton machine. We are the perpetual underdog and will be throughout this process."), there is the real possibility that Obama has inherited the frontrunner mantle, whether he likes it or not. But, having already beat the odds to overcome a massive name-recognition deficit, this is a mantle that the Obama campaign will have to begin to embrace, albeit cautiously. Right now, the biggest threat to Obama's campaign is that his fervent and dedicated volunteers will become complacent in the wake of their most recent victories. But if they can avoid any such false confidence, Obama will be well-poised to challenge Clinton in her Custer-like (or, should we say Rudy-like) last stands in Ohio and Texas.
Democrats in both the Clinton and Obama camps, fearful that party insiders will decide the nomination, are realizing the need to hitch their wagon to the candidate that can win the nomination in the most democratic fashion, and right now that candidate is Senator Obama. Apart from Obama's regained momentum against Clinton, six of seven recent polls show him besting John McCain in the general election, while Clinton loses to McCain in five of the seven polls, and only ties him in the other. Even Peggy Noonan has caught on to the advantages that Obama holds over the GOP in the general election: "The Democrats continue not to recognize what they have in this guy. Believe me, Republican professionals know. They can tell." Ms. Noonan is right about Obama's electoral strengths, but she's wrong about her first premise. We have recognized what we have in Senator Obama, and this weekend continued to bear out that realization.