The influential Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius has a new research note out (with Sven Jari Stehn), "Thoughts on the Macroeconomic Impact of Basel III," arguing that the move to raise capital standards for banks will put a serious crimp in growth in the United States - knocking 1.5 to 2 percent off gross domestic product in the next few years. Their findings are questionable, but in any case we should broaden the discussion to consider exactly how banks like Goldman Sachs affect our macroeconomic dynamics going forward - particularly if they are able to effectively lobby against higher capital. Growth based on risky banking has a tendency to prove illusory.
Let us consider three issues. First, what is the short-term impact of raising capital requirements? Second, how should capital be increased? And third, and perhaps most important, do we really need global banks like Goldman Sachs to operate in their recent "high risk, highly variable returns" mode?
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