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U.S. Election: YouGov Poll In UK Says Obama Will Win

UK Poll: Obama Will Win
Reuters
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President Barack Obama smiles as he speaks to supporters at a campaign event at Elm Street Middle School, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 in Nashua, N.H. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

By Peter Schwartzstein

LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama will win the popular vote by two per cent in Tuesday's election while beating Republican opponent Mitt Romney in most of the battleground states, a British YouGov survey of 36,000 American voters forecast.

The election is widely viewed as a very close contest, but President Obama is projected in the poll to take almost two-thirds of the electoral college votes in the nine states seen as likely to decide the result.

"We are predicting that Obama is going to hang on to the presidency, but by a smaller margin than in 2008," YouGov President Peter Kellner said in a statement.

YouGov carried out the poll in 27 U.S. states.

Obama holds a clear advantage in the last day of campaigning - 237 guaranteed electoral college votes to Romney's 191, and YouGov insisted that they and most other pollsters would have to be "systematically wrong" to allow for a Romney victory.

A minimum 270 electoral college votes is needed for victory.

YouGov noted the potential, though, for Obama's situation to echo that of President George W. Bush in 2000, when he lost the popular vote to Al Gore but still came out on top.

"In such a tight race, no doubt the Democrats are not only concerned about losing the White House, but are also worried about the cloud that could hang over Obama's second term if he does not win the popular vote," Kellner said.

Obama is said to have struggled to live up to the expectations he stirred in 2008. He is certainly on course for a less convincing victory than he won four years ago - 303 electoral college votes now to 365 then, the poll indicated.

But Romney too has had a difficult time in winning over independents and had to come through a long and bruising Republican primary process.

"Whatever happens tomorrow, this will undeniably be an historic election," Kellner said.

Polls open at 7 a.m. ET (1200 GMT) on Tuesday.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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Before You Go

If The World Could Vote
France(01 of11)
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The French are Obama's strongest international backers. Seventy-two percent prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney.Caption: The temporary results of a U.S. presidential election straw vote is displayed on a board at Harry's Bar in Paris, Wednesday October 31 2012. (AP Photo/Francois Mori) (credit:AP Photo/Francois Mori)
Australia(02 of11)
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Australians overwhelmingly support Obama. Sixty-seven percent would vote for the current president. Caption: President Barack Obama and Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard arrive to speak with Australian troops during a visit to Royal Australian Air Force Base in Darwin, Australia. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File) (credit:AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)
Canada(03 of11)
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According to GlobalScan, 66 percent of Canadians support President Obama. A recent Angus Reid survey indicated that 72 percent of Canadians favor the president. Caption: U.S. President Barack Obama greets Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper upon his arrival at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland on May 18 2012 G8 summit. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages) (credit:BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages))
Kenya(04 of11)
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Sixty-six percent of Kenyans champion President Obama, a 21 point drop in ratings since 2008. Caption: Wangari Maathai, Noble Peace Laureate and conservation heroine, is seen with President Barrack Obama in Nairobi, Kenya on Monday September 26 2011. (AP Photo/Sayyid Abdul Azim, File) (credit:AP Photo/Sayyid Abdul Azim, File)
Nigeria(05 of11)
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Sixty-six percentof Nigerians endorse Obama.Caption: A Nigerian security man sits under a campaign poster of Nigeria President Goodluck Jonathan, with President Barrack Obama, in Abuja, Nigeria on Wednesday January 12 2011. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba) (credit:AP Photo/Sunday Alamba)
Brazil(06 of11)
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Sixty-five percent of Brazilians back Barack Obama.Caption: President Barack Obama meets with Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff on Monday April 9 2012, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) (credit:AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
Panama(07 of11)
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Sixty-five percent of Panamanians are in favor of Obama.Caption: President Obama shakes hands with Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli, in the Oval Office at the White House on April 28 2011 in Washington DC. (Brendan Hoffman-Pool/Getty Images) (credit:Brendan Hoffman-Pool/Getty Images)
United Kingdom(08 of11)
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Sixty-five percent of Britons root for Barack Obama, according to a GlobeScan survey. Angus Reid found that 62 percent in Britain say they would vote for Obama if they could take part in this year's United States presidential election.Caption: President Barack Obama and Britain's Prince Philip walk to view the Guard of Honor of the Scots Guard during an official arrival ceremony at Buckingham Palace in London, on May 24 2011. (AP Photo / Carolyn Kaster, file) (credit:AP Photo / Carolyn Kaster, file)
Germany(09 of11)
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Sixty-four percent of Germans are fans of Barack Obama.Caption: U.S. President Barack Obama greets German Chancellor Angela Merkel upon her arrival at the Camp David presidential retreat in Maryland on May 18 2012 the G8 summit. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages) (credit:BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/GettyImages)
South Korea(10 of11)
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Fifty-eight percent of South Koreans are pro-Obama.Caption: U.S. President Barack Obama, and South Korean President Lee Myung-bak look down as they look for their toe-markers before a group photo session at the Nuclear Security Summit at the Coex Center, in Seoul, South Korea on Tuesday March 27 2012. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) (credit:AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)
Indonesia(11 of11)
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Fifty-nine percent of Indonesians declare themselves in favor of Obama.Caption: Wearing traditional woven ikat shirt, U.S. President Barack Obama is greeted by his Indonesian counterpart Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his wife Kristiani, upon arrival for a gala dinner at ASEAN Summit in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia on Friday November 18 2011. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara) (credit:AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)
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