On CNBC's "Squawk Box" this morning Warren Buffett told Joe Kernen, Becky Quick, Carl Quintanilla and Steve Liesman that he thought the country was in a recession, even if economists weren't quite ready to label it as such:
QUICK: WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS MORNING WHETHER OR NOT WE'RE IN A RECESSION AT THIS POINT. THE SAID IT LOOKED BY ANY SORT OF RELEVANT MANNER A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO IF YOU WERE TRYING TO MEASURE THIS LIKE WE WERE IN A RECESSION. THERE ARE SOME SAYING, YEAH, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A RECESSION. DO YOU STILL STAND BY THAT IDEA WE'RE IN A RECESSION?
BUFFETT: YEAH, I THINK WE'RE IN A RECESSION. IT IS DEFINED IN A CERTAIN WAY BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. BUT I THINK IT'S DEFINED BY THE MAN IN THE STREET DIFFERENTLY THAN WHETHER THERE HAVE BEEN TWO QUARTERS OF REPORTED GDP GROWTH. INCIDENTALLY, WHEN GROWTH IS BELOW 1% A YEAR, IT'S REALLY FALLING ON A PER CAPITA BASIS BECAUSE OUR POPULATION INCREASES ABOUT 1%. EVEN THOUGH THE NATIONAL BUREAU USES AN ABSOLUTE FIGURE, IF IT'S UP .1, THEY DON'T COUNT THAT AS A RECESSIONARY QUARTER. BUT THE PER CAPITA HAS GONE DOWN IN A QUARTER WHEN THE GAIN IS A HALF A PERCENT OR SOMETHING OF THE SORT. WE ARE IN A RECESSION UNLESS YOU WANT TO STICK STRICTLY TO THE TECHNICAL DEFINITION WHICH I DON'T THINK HAS MUCH MEANING TO THE FELLOW WHO'S LOST HIS JOB OR WHO'S FACING A MONEY MARKET FUND THAT ISN'T PAYING HIM OUT OR WHATEVER IT MAY BE.
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