Forget the Homeownership Rate, It Is the Process That Matters

I don't share the dismay about the decline in the homeownership rate because a higher rate is not necessarily better. When homeownership reached its peak in 2005, many owners could not afford the houses in which they were living.
|
This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. If you need to flag this entry as abusive, send us an email.

Because of the widespread belief that homeownership is valuable, the recent decline in the homeownership rate has generated some dismay. The rate, which had peaked at 69.1 percent in 2005, shortly before the financial crisis, has since fallen to 64.8 percent. This is the lowest it has been since 1995.

I don't share the dismay about the decline in the homeownership rate because a higher rate is not necessarily better. When homeownership reached its peak in 2005, many owners could not afford the houses in which they were living. The important thing is not the homeownership rate but whether the homeownership process is efficient and fair. If it is, then whatever homeownership rate emerges is the optimal rate.

The homeownership process is the network of rules and practitioners that a home buyer typically encounters in becoming a homeowner. The major rules are the underwriting standards that determine whether or not a potential home buyer will qualify for the mortgage needed to execute the purchase. The practitioners usually include a real estate agent, a mortgage loan originator, and sometimes an independent counselor.

Existing underwriting rules are a weakness. In a knee-jerk regulatory reaction to the financial crisis, documentation requirements, which are a critical component of underwriting rules, were tightened unreasonably. This made some high-quality loan applicants, especially among the self-employed, ineligible for no good reason. None of the agencies seem to be concerned about this.

A major weakness of the home ownership process is the mortgage loan originator (LO). This is the individual who takes the borrower through the loan process, applies the underwriting rules, and is a major source of information and advice about the options available to the borrower.

The typical LO is an expert on mortgages and the mortgage process, where the typical loan applicant is a novice. The problem is that the LO has a financial incentive to use his information advantage for his own benefit rather than for the benefit of the applicant.

LOs are compensated by commission calculated as a percent of the loan amount, payable only if the loan closes. Their financial interest is in taking the loan to closing with the least expenditure of time. The LO's commission is not affected by how carefully he examines whether the borrower:

•Should take an adjustable rate or a fixed-rate loan, and if the latter, the best term.
•Should buy down the interest rate by paying points, or buy up the rate in order to receive a rebate.
•Should reduce the down payment to conserve cash or increase it to reduce the mortgage insurance premium.

Neither is the LO's commission affected by what happens to the loan after the closing. Defaults and foreclosures are somebody else's problems.

Given this terrible incentive structure, I am frequently surprised at encountering LOs who are consummate professionals, acting in the best interest of the applicant and investing the time needed to do the job right. Unfortunately, there aren't enough of them, and there is no reliable way for a home buyer to find one.

A widely held view is that the best antidote for the conflict inherent in the LO mechanism is the use of counselors who have the requisite knowledge but no financial interest in the transaction. They may be paid by the borrower, lender, or insurer but payment is not related to the size of the loan, or to whether or not the loan closes. A few studies have found that home buyers who were counseled have lower mortgage delinquency rates than buyers who were not.

On HECM reverse mortgages, counseling is required for all borrowers. I had an opportunity to query 13 of them on their reaction to the counseling: 5 said it was worth the time, 5 said it was a waste of time, and 3 were on the fence.

HUD, which administers the HECM counseling program, appears favorably disposed to counseling. It is developing a pilot program in which borrowers will have their FHA mortgage insurance premiums reduced if they agree to undergo counseling.

The downside of counseling is that someone must pay for it, and it introduces another time-consuming step in the process. A major complaint against counseling in the HECM market is that transactions are often delayed waiting for a counselor to become available.

There is another approach that does not require an additional participant in the process performing an additional function. This is to certify LOs who meet all the requirements of consummate professionals. I will discuss this approach next week.

For more information and unbiased mortgage advice, you can contact the professor at The Mortgage Professor.

10 States Where No One Wants To Buy A Home
10. Pennsylvania(01 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.15%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -60.29% (11th smallest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 8,136Total housing units: 5,567,315At the beginning of 2011, a number of new, restrictive building codes went into effect in Pennsylvania. This caused a rush among builders to secure permits, with housing permits increasing a massive 117.8% between November and December 2010, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The state's housing market has not been doing well since. Permits issued from January to June 2011 fell 16% compared to the same six-month period one year earlier. The national average for permits issued in the first six months of 2011 compared to the first six months of 2011 is a decrease of 6%.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
9. Maine(02 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.14%Decline in building permits 2005-2011:Building permits 2011 YTD: -77.09% (11th largest)Total housing units: 721,830Maine has seen one of the largest decreases in building permits in the past six years. This is unsurprising as home sales in general declined substantially. Home sales for June 2011 decreased 21.39% from June 2010, according to the Maine Association of Realtors. The state's median sales price also decreased 1.37% over this same period. According to numbers from the Census Bureau, Maine has the highest vacancy rate in the country, reaching 22.8% in 2010. However, this number also includes empty vacation houses.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
8. New York(03 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.14%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -61.85% (12th smallest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 11,033Total housing units: 8,108,103New York State's housing market is among the largest in the country. As a result, the number of permits is minuscule when compared to the state's total housing units. Although new home sales decreased in the first half of 2011 from 2010, the number of permits actually increased slightly during that period, from 10,189 in 2010. This is significantly lower than 2005's 28,921 permits.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
7. Massachusetts(04 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.12%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: 69.55% (24th smallest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 3,402Total housing units: 2,808,254Despite having a healthy economy compared to much of the country, Massachusetts' housing market is beginning to face serious troubles. In June 2011, sales of single-family homes in the state decreased 23.5% from the year before, reaching the lowest level since 1991, according to the Warren Group, a New England real estate research firm. With so few home sales, it follows that not many new homes are being built. Year-to-date, building permits for 2011 are about one quarter of what they were in 2005.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
6. Ohio(05 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.12%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -76.61% (12th largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 6,184Total housing units: 5,127,508Ohio has suffered, and continues to suffer, greatly from the housing crisis. Over 8,000 homes were foreclosed in July 2011, the ninth-largest amount in the country, according to real estate company RealtyTrac. With such a high foreclosure rate, currently at one in every 608 housing units, housing is already too inexpensive for people to want to build. Ohio has therefore had one of the greatest decreases in building permits in the country over the past six years. Median existing home sales are also down in many areas of the state, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In Toledo, prices are down 17% from one year ago, the third largest rate in the country.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
5. Connecticut(06 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -74.06% (14th largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 1,403Total housing units: 1,487,891Connecticut has had one of the greatest declines in the number of new building permits in the country. This trend saw a small turnaround in June -- the first monthly year-over-year gain in 2011 in new construction, according to the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development. However, the Hartford Courant reports that for "the first six months of the year, residential construction was down 30 percent compared with the same period in 2010." June was also the first increase in home construction in five years.Read more at 24/7 Wall St. (credit:Flickr:Bernt Rostad)
4. Michigan(07 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -82.19% (7th largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 4,250Total housing units: 4,532,233Michigan is one of the states that has suffered the most from the recession. The state's unemployment rate peaked around 15% in 2010. It is now at 10.5%, which is still significantly higher than the national average of 9.2%. The state has a vacancy rate of just under 15%, which is one of the highest in the country. New building permits have also decreased by over 80% since 2005, also one of the highest rates in the country. The state may now be more focused on tearing down old buildings than building new ones.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
3. Illinois(08 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -84.18% (3rd largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 4,897 Total housing units: 5,296,715Illinois has seen an almost 85% decrease in new housing permits since 2005. This is the third largest drop in the country. There are a number of initiatives being made across the state to improve the housing markets. In Chicago, for instance, Mayor Emanuel has made a number of changes to increase the speed with which building permits are issued. Additionally, a "Micro-Market Recovery Program" has been introduced to slow the city's foreclosure rate.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
2. West Virginia(09 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -72.71% (17th largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 774Total housing units: 881,917West Virginia's decline in building permits has slowed to almost a crawl. In the first six months of 2005 the state issued almost 3,000 permits. For the first half of 2011, that amount decreased to 774. If every permit were to result in a new housing structure, those homes would represent less than 0.1% of the total housing units in the state. Despite all this, construction is one area that is benefiting the state. According to the organization WorkForce West Virginia, 700 construction jobs were added in-state this past July -- the largest amount of jobs added in the private sector.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
1. Rhode Island(10 of10)
Open Image Modal
Building permits/total housing units: 0.07%Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -70.81% (22nd largest)Building permits 2011 YTD: 312Total housing units: 463,388Foreclosure filings increased 4% in Rhode Island from the first six months of 2010 to the first six months of 2011, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosures dropped by 29% for that same period on the national level. Rhode Island home sales decreased 20% from one year ago in the second-quarter, according to the Rhode Island Association of Realtors. Additionally, median home prices have dropped 2%. These numbers indicate that Rhode Island's housing market is not recovering at the same pace as the majority of the country. For this first six months of this year, the state has issued a mere 312 building permits, the smallest number in the country.Read more at 24/7 Wall St.