A Melting Antarctica Could Sink The World's Coastlines Faster Than Predicted

Sea level rise could be double previous estimates, swamping Boston and New York by 2100.
  • A new paper says seas could rise more than six feet by 2100.

  • Many cities, including New York, Boston and Hong Kong, would be partially underwater.

  • The worst effects could be avoided if we slash or stop carbon emissions.

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Reuters Staff / Reuters

A new report nearly doubles previous predictions for sea level rise if global emissions continue unabated, portending a doomsday scenario for many of the world's coastal cities.

The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, looks toward the ice sheets of Antarctica, which by themselves may contribute more than three feet to sea level rise by 2100. Taken with other melting regions, including Greenland, seas could rise more than six feet, or two meters, by the end of the century.

David Pollard of Penn State University and co-author Rob DeConto said the "dire" predictions are nearly double those recently used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a worst-case scenario if humanity fails to curb emissions.

Dozens of low-lying metropolises, including Hong Kong, New York and Sydney, would be vulnerable to these rising seas. The authors warn that places like Boston could be faced with a sea level rise of more than five feet in the next century alone. Pollard said other potential effects, similar to the damaging storm surge caused by Hurricane Sandy, could contribute to the ballooning estimates for future flood losses.

A study published last month found sea levels were rising at the fastest rate since the founding of ancient Rome 2,800 years ago, spurred by the burning of fossil fuels. The authors of that report noted without the impact of humans, seas would be rising less rapidly, or possibly falling.

In an interview with The Guardian, DeConto said global warming could force "retreat" from cities, rather than the "engineering of defenses" to avoid the worst effects of sea level rise.

But the new models cited in Pollard and DeConto's study, which use historical data from 130,000 years ago and 3 million years ago, when temperatures were warmer and seas were higher, could make a fight against the tides all for naught. The authors expanded the sea level rise estimates to the year 2500, and found that Antarctica could cause more than 50 feet of sea level rise alone.

Despite the doomsday-esque prediction, the planet still holds some hope to address the growing concerns. DeConto noted in a statement that if humans are able to slash emissions, most of the Antarctic would remain frozen.

Last year's landmark climate accord forged in Paris could provide the groundwork toward limiting greenhouse gas emissions. World leaders have pledged to keep global warming below a threshold of 2 degrees Celsius. But the world isn't there yet, and global temperature records -- including the one set in February, the warmest such month on record -- continue to be broken.

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Before You Go

Climate change seen from around the world
(01 of05)
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A boy whose house was destroyed by the cyclone watches an approaching storm, some 50 kilometres southwest of the township of Kunyangon. Further storms would complicate relief efforts and leave children increasingly vulnerable to disease. In May 2008 in Myanmar, an estimated 1.5 million people are struggling to survive under increasingly desperate conditions in the wake of Cyclone Nargis, which hit the southwestern coast on 3 May, killed some 100,000 people, and displaced 1 million across five states. Up to 5,000 square kilometres of the densely populated Irrawaddy Delta, which bore the brunt of the storm, remain underwater. (credit:Unicef)
(02 of05)
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In 2003 in Djibouti, a girl collects water from the bottom of a well in a rural area in Padjourah District. Drought has depleted much of the water supply. (credit:Unicef)
(03 of05)
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On Sept. 11, 2011, a man carries his daughter across an expanse of flood water in the city of Digri, in Sindh Province. By Sept. 26 in Pakistan, over 5.4 million people, including 2.7 million children, had been affected by monsoon rains and flooding, and this number was expected to rise. In Sindh Province, 824,000 people have been displaced and at least 248 killed. Many government schools have been turned into temporary shelters, and countless water sources have been contaminated. More than 1.8 million people are living in makeshift camps without proper sanitation or access to safe drinking water. Over 70 per cent of standing crops and nearly 14,000 livestock have been destroyed in affected areas, where 80 per cent of the population relies on agriculture for food and income. Affected communities are also threatened by measles, acute watery diarrhoea, hepatitis and other communicable diseases. The crisis comes one year after the country�s 2010 monsoon-related flooding disaster, which covered up to one fifth of the country in flood water and affected more than 18 million people, half of them children. Many families are still recovering from the earlier emergency, which aggravated levels of chronic malnutrition and adversely affected primary school attendance, sanitation access and other child protection issues. In response to this latest crisis, UNICEF is working with Government authorities and United Nations agencies and partners to provide relief. Thus far, UNICEF-supported programmes have immunized over 153,000 children and 14,000 women; provided nutritional screenings and treatments benefiting over 2,000 children; provided daily safe drinking water to 106,700 people; and constructed 400 latrines benefiting 35,000 people. Still, additional nutrition support and safe water and sanitation services are urgently needed. A joint United Nations Rapid Response Plan seeks US$356.7 million to address the needs of affected populations over the next six months. (credit:Unicef)
(04 of05)
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A girl carries her baby sibling through a haze of dust in Sidi Village, in Kanem Region. She is taking him to be screened for malnutrition at a mobile outpatient centre for children, operated by one nurse and four nutrition workers. The programme is new to the area. Several months ago, most children suffering from severe malnutrition had to be transported to health centres in the town of Mundo, 12 kilometres away, or in the city of Mao, some 35 kilometres away. In April 2010 in Chad, droughts have devastated local agriculture, causing chronic food shortages and leaving 2 million people in urgent need of food aid. Due to poor rainfall and low agricultural yields, malnutrition rates have hovered above emergency thresholds for a decade. But the 2009 harvest was especially poor, with the production of staple crops declining by 20 percent to 30 percent. Food stocks have since dwindled, and around 30 percent of cattle in the region have died from lack of vegetation. (credit:Unicef)
(05 of05)
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A boy carries supplies through waist-high floodwater in Pasig City in Manila, the capital. On Sept. 30, 2009, in the Philippines, over half a million people are displaced by flooding caused by Tropical Storm Ketsana, which struck on Sept. 26. The storm dumped over a month's worth of rain on the island of Luzon in only 12 hours. The flooding has affected some 1.8 million people, and the death toll has climbed to 246. (credit:Unicef)