Politicsflorida-pollPoliticsMitt Romney

Obama Leads In Ohio, Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Poll Says

Obama Leads In Crucial Swing States
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By 

Senior Reporter and Polling Editor, HuffPost

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President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by six percentage points in Ohio, and edges the Republican by two points in Florida, according to an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll released Friday night.

The poll finds Obama ahead 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio, and 49 percent to 47 percent among likely Florida voters.

Both campaigns have their eye on Ohio, which is especially critical to the Romney campaign's path to 270 electoral votes.

"Ohio, you're the lynchpin, you're the battleground of battlegrounds," Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan said Friday, while campaigning in the state.

Obama, also in Ohio, urged supporters to the polls, telling them that “Voting is the best revenge.”

Compared with other publicly released polling, NBC/WSJ/Marist's surveys have been somewhat more favorable to Obama in Ohio and close to the average in Florida. Its polls showed Obama leading by seven points in Ohio and by five in Florida in early September. In early October, the same polls put Obama ahead by six to eight points in Ohio and by one point in Florida.

In Ohio, HuffPost Pollster's model estimates that Obama leads by slightly less than three points. Of the 20 polls released in the state since Oct. 25, 18 show the president ahead, by margins of one to six points. Two polls by Rasmussen found the race first favoring Romney by two points, and then tied as of Nov. 1. A survey by the Republican firm Wenzel Strategies for Citizens United found Romney up by three points.

The race in Florida is incredibly tight, with the HuffPost/Pollster model estimating an exact tie early Saturday, with each candidate attracting just over 48 percent of likely voters. Of the 13 polls released since Oct. 25, seven show Obama leading, by one to two points. Four show Romney ahead by one to six points, and one, SurveyUSA, has the race tied.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll used live telephone interviews to survey 1,545 likely voters in Florida and 971 likely voters in Ohio Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. The Florida poll has a 2.5 percent margin of error, while the Ohio poll has a 3.1 percent margin of error.

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Before You Go

100 Years Of Election Night Losers
2012 -- Mitt Romney(01 of27)
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Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, speaks at the podium as he concedes the presidency on November 7, 2012 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Matthew Cavanaugh/Getty Images) (credit:Getty)
2008 -- John McCain (02 of27)
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Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., gestures to his supporters, while his wife, Cindy looks on during his concession speech at the Arizona Biltmore in Phoenix, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola) (credit:AP)
2004 -- John Kerry(03 of27)
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Former Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Senator John Kerry (D-MA) stands on stage with his wife Teresa Heinz Kerry after delivering his concession speech at Faneuil Hall on November 3, 2004 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Chris Hondros/Getty Images) (credit:Getty)
2000 -- Al Gore(04 of27)
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Democratic presidental candidate Al Gore leaves the voting booth after casting his vote at Forks River Elementry School in Elmwood, Tennessee on November 7, 2000. (TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty )
1996 -- Bob Dole(05 of27)
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Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole lowers his head while making his concession speech to supporters at a Washington hotel, on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 1996. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (credit:AP)
1992 -- George H.W. Bush (06 of27)
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U.S. President George Bush concedes the election on Nov. 3, 1992 after losing to President-elect Bill Clinton. (BOB DAEMMRICH/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty)
1992 -- Ross Perot(07 of27)
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U.S. independent presidential candidate Ross Perot delivers his concession speech on November 3, 1992 after Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidential election. (Photo credit should read PAUL RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty )
1988 -- Michael Dukakis (08 of27)
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Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis wipes his upper lip during the first presidential debate with his opponent U.S. Vice President George Bush in Winston-Salem, N.C. on Sept. 25, 1988. (AP Photo/Bob Jordan) (credit:AP)
1984 -- Walter Mondale (09 of27)
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Defeated presidential hopeful Walter Mondale addresses supporters at night, Tuesday, Nov. 7, 1984 at the St. Paul Civic center, conceding to President Reagan. (AP Photo/Jim Mone) (credit:AP)
1980 -- Jimmy Carter(10 of27)
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U.S. President Jimmy Carter concedes defeat in the presidential election as he addresses a group of Carter-Mondale supporters in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 1980. (AP Photo/Barry Thumma) (credit:AP)
1976 -- Gerald Ford(11 of27)
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President Gerald Ford speaks in the White House Press Room in Washington on November 3, 1976, conceding defeat to Jimmy Carter. (AP photo/ stf) (credit:AP)
1972 -- George McGovern(12 of27)
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Sen. George McGovern and his family in Sioux Falls, election night, Nov. 7, 1972 after he was defeated by Richard Nixon, and conceding the election. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1968 -- Hubert H. Humphrey(13 of27)
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Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey spaks at the Alfred E. Smith memorial dinner in Waldorf Astoria on Oct. 16, 1968 in New York. (AP Photo/John Lent) (credit:AP)
1964 -- Barry Goldwater (14 of27)
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A contact sheet of Republican senator Barry Morris Goldwater of Arizona concedes the 1964 presidential election to President Lyndon Johnson at a press conference held at his campaign headquarters at the Camelback Inn, Phoenix, Arizona, on November 4, 1964. (Photo by Washington Bureau/Getty Images) (credit:Getty)
1960 -- Richard Nixon (15 of27)
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Vice President Nixon points to home-made sign at airport as he arrives in home state to cast his ballot on Nov. 8, 1960 in Ontario, California. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1956 -- Adlai Stevenson(16 of27)
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Sen. John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts talks with Democratic presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson on August 12, 1956 in Chicago. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1952 -- Adlai Stevenson (17 of27)
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Movie Actress Piper Laurie (left) is wearing a donkey head beauty spot on her cheek as she chats with Gov. Adlai Stevenson of Illinois, Democratic presidential nominee in Portland on Sept. 8, 1952. (AP Photo) (credit:AP )
1948 -- Thomas Dewey(18 of27)
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Dewey ran as the presidential candidate of the Republican Party in the elections of 1944 and 1948. (Photo by Fox Photos/Getty Images) (credit:Getty)
1944, 1948 -- Thomas Dewey(19 of27)
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Thomas Dewey (1902 - 1971) Governor of the State of New York broadcasting over the 'Crusade of Freedom' radio. Dewey was the presidential candidate of the Republican Party in the elections of 1944 and 1948. (Photo by Keystone/Getty Images) (credit:Getty )
1940 -- Wendell Wilkie(20 of27)
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Wendell Willkie, rehearses a report to the nation at a New York City radio station on Oct. 26, 1942. Willkie was President Roosevelt's personal representative, and his Republican opponent in the 1940 presidential elections. (AP Photo/Murray Becker) (credit:AP)
1936 -- Alf Landon(21 of27)
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Gov. Alf M. Landon, G.O.P. presidential nominee, voting in Independence, Kansas on Nov. 3, 1936. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1932 -- Herbert Hoover(22 of27)
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Herbert Hoover is shown leaving Madison Square Garden, Oct. 31, 1932 in New York City, after delivering his major campaign address before a crowd estimated at 22,000. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1928 -- Alfred E. Smith(23 of27)
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Governor Alfred E. Smith speaks in New York on Nov. 2, 1928. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1924 -- John W. Davis(24 of27)
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John W. Davis, Democratic nominee for President of the U.S., and his wife, are pictured on the estate of Charles Dana Gibson at Seven Hundred Acre Island in Dark Harbor, Maine on July 21, 1924. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
1920 -- James M. Cox (25 of27)
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Democratic candidates for the presidency and vice-presidency of the United States, Governor James M Cox and Franklin Delano Roosevelt (1882 - 1945) are seen at the head of a nomination parade in Dayton, Ohio on Nov. 1, 1920. (Photo by Topical Press Agency/Getty Images) (credit:Getty )
1916 -- Charles Evans Hughes(26 of27)
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(credit:Alamy)
1912 -- Theodore Roosevelt (27 of27)
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Theodore Roosevelt during the progressive campaign of 1912. (AP Photo) (credit:AP)
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