Robert Gates Warns Obama Must Carefully Calibrate Russia Response

Robert Gates Warns Obama Must Carefully Calibrate Russia Response
|

By Phil Stewart

WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama needs to look "two or three moves out" as he weighs his response to Russia's seizure of Ukraine's Crimea Peninsula, which Moscow is unlikely to soon reverse, Obama's former defense secretary, Robert Gates, said on Sunday.

Gates, a Russia expert and former CIA chief, portrayed a difficult path for Obama in which European allies may "huff and puff" but fail to match rhetoric with strong action and where Russian President Vladimir Putin feels he has the upper hand.

"From Putin's standpoint, he's in the catbird's seat. He's put himself in a position where we need him in terms of the Syrian chemical (weapons) deal. We need him in terms of the Iranian nuclear program," Gates, who served as defense secretary from 2006 to 2011, said in a telephone interview with Reuters.

"We need the Russians in terms of getting our (military)equipment out of Afghanistan."

Gates is known for his straight talk, including in a new memoir where he criticized Congress and accused Obama, at one point, of not believing in his own Afghan war strategy.

In his book, Gates described Putin as a man of Russia's past, "haunted by lost empire, lost glory and lost power."

Asked how he would advise Obama in the crisis in Ukraine, Gates pointed to lessons from Russia's war with Georgia in 2008, when he said Washington wanted to react with more forceful economic and political measures than EU allies did.

"We ran the risk of being the ones who would be isolated because we favored a much more aggressive response than any of our (European) allies did," said Gates, who was President George W. Bush's defense secretary at the time.

"So that's one of the things the president's got to look out for."

Indeed, the European Union is not expected to match the United States in threatening sanctions against Russia when its foreign ministers meet to discuss Ukraine on Monday, instead pushing for mediation between Moscow and Kiev, officials say.

Ukraine mobilized for war on Sunday and Washington threatened to isolate Russia economically after Putin declared he had the right to invade his neighbor.

Russia is the EU's most important trading partner after the United States and China, with 123 billion euros ($170 billion) of goods exported there in 2012. It is also the EU's most important single supplier of energy products, accounting for more than a quarter of all EU consumption of oil and gas.

Gates said Obama also needed to be mindful of his rhetoric in the days ahead, noting that "the stronger the rhetoric, the greater expectation of strong action - even if it's limited (to) the political and economic arena."

If Obama moves ahead with any punitive actions like sanctions, it is important to consider what it would take to reverse any of them down the road. Obama must consider whether Moscow would need to take some step or make some gesture first.

"The challenge is to look two or three moves out and see: If you do this, what will they do? ... And will you have any allies or supporters when you do this?" he said.

The standoff in Ukraine has created the greatest moment of tension between Russia and the West since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, an event Putin once called the worst geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

Gates did not specifically prescribe any course of action. He said he did not see Putin backing down on Crimea and that the question was whether Moscow might look to eastern Ukraine.

"That's sort of the next shoe. And the question is whether Putin stops where he is with the Crimea or whether the Russians take the next step and 'liberate' eastern Ukraine," he said. (Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

Our 2024 Coverage Needs You

As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.

Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.

to keep our news free for all.

Support HuffPost

Before You Go

Ukraine Protests
Ukraine crisis(01 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(02 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(03 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(04 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(05 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(06 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(07 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(08 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(09 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
Ukraine crisis(10 of25)
Open Image Modal
British-based Ukrainians gather outside the Russian Embassy in London to protest against the build-up of troops in the Crimea region. (credit:PA)
US-UKRAINE-UNREST(11 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-UNREST(12 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-UNREST(13 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-UNREST(14 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-POLITICS(15 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-POLITICS(16 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-POLITICS(17 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-POLITICS(18 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
US-UKRAINE-POLITICS(19 of25)
Open Image Modal
Ukrainian activists gather outside the White House on March 1, 2014 in Washington. Protesters gathered to rally against foreign involvement in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. AFP PHOTO/Brendan SMIALOWSKI (Photo credit should read BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP/Getty Images) (credit:Getty Images)
Ukraine(20 of25)
Open Image Modal
Police detain an activist protesting against recent developments in Russian-Ukrainian relations during an unsanctioned rally on the Manezh Square in Moscow, Russia
Ukraine(21 of25)
Open Image Modal
Demonstrators gather outside the Russian Embassy in Vilnius, Lithuania, to protest against Russian intervention in Ukraine Sunday, March 2, 2014.
Ukraine(22 of25)
Open Image Modal
Demonstrators gather outside the Russian Embassy in Vilnius, Lithuania, to protest against Russian intervention in Ukraine Sunday, March 2, 2014.
Ukraine(23 of25)
Open Image Modal
A policeman detains a supporter of Russian opponent activist Aleksey Navalny as many others gather at the Manej square to stage a protest against the court decision to Navalny's detention in the capital Moscow
Ukraine(24 of25)
Open Image Modal
Members of the Pussy Riot punk group, Maria Alekhina and supporters of Russian opponent activist Aleksey Navalny gather at the Manej square to stage a protest against the court decision to Navalny's detention in the capital Moscow
Ukraine(25 of25)
Open Image Modal
Members of the Pussy Riot punk group, Maria Alekhina and supporters of Russian opponent activist Aleksey Navalny gather at the Manej square to stage a protest against the court decision to Navalny's detention in the capital Moscow.