The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For June 24, 2011

The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup For June 24, 2011
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The big news this week is that the long-awaited and art-film teased Jon Huntsman campaign finally got off the ground, with the newly-declared candidate making an appearance in New Jersey, with the Statue of Liberty in the background, because, well... because Reagan once did it? Most of the reviews features descriptors that ranged from tepid to anti-climactic (perhaps motorcycle stunts were anticipated?) to confused. Here's Walter Shapiro at The New Republic:

While the pyrotechnics accompanying the presidential rollout were impressive (two dozen TV cameras chronicled a GOP candidate hovering at 1 percent in the national polls), Huntsman's words themselves were flickering sparklers rather than skyrocketing Roman candles. The former two-term Utah governor repeatedly resorted to the well-crafted banalities that speechwriters use in place of original thought. Calling for "leadership that knows we need answers," Huntsman boldly declared, "We can and will own the future." In an era of persistent 9-percent unemployment, Huntsman confided a revelation that came to him only because he held elective office: "I learned something very important as governor. For most American families, there is nothing more important than a job."

The reason for dwelling on Huntsman's anodyne rhetoric is because his presidential campaign remains curiously inchoate. I am perplexed whether there is more -- or less -- to Huntsman's political persona than meets the eye.

Lots of questions remain with Huntsman, and a lot center on style. Did the Huntsman campaign realize how hackneyed a roll-out in front of the Statue of Liberty looks? What we know of this campaign so far is, there's no way of knowing if they intend to be conventional or if they're offering some kind of meta-commentary on conventionality. Surely this campaign exists, at least in part, as a rebuke to the conventional wisdom that says he can't win in the 2012 environment.

Should he maybe declare himself as an independent? Is he running for vice-president? Is he credible? Is he even conservative?

Right out of the gates, he's considered a media darling, but the media tends to love a candidate who's nice to them while not posing much of a serious threat to win the nomination. Speaking of, the trendy thing to say about Huntsman is that he's running in John McCain's footsteps. (I guess that means he'll win New Hampshire, get victimized by racially-coded dirty tricks in South Carolina and be positioned for a shot at redemption in another election cycle?)

There's also a specter of religious prejudice that hangs over Huntsman's campaign. Like Mitt Romney, Huntsman is a Mormon, and this week, a Gallup poll found that one-in-five Americans were uncomfortable voting for a Mormon in a presidential election. There's plenty to lament in those results, if you've a mind for being fair.

But Huntsman and Romney aren't really in the race for Mormon votes -- they're actually both in a larger race for the votes of people who prefer a "sane and reasonable" candidate to a red-meat scorching conservative firebrand. They're both on the hunt for those voters who like their candidates "electable."

To that end, Huntsman has made a promise to be a Boy Scout during this race. In large part, it's how he's going to deal with the fact that he worked in the Obama administration and seemed to enjoy it. But that promise will also govern how he copes with the field.

"I don't think you need to run down somebody's reputation in order to run for the office of president," Huntsman said. And in a fine example of where our insane standard for credibility is at the moment, his pledge was declared a dead letter after Huntsman offered some painfully mild criticism of Mitt Romney: "If you're talking about free market health care -- the kind we did in Utah and the kind that is needed in this country -- then [Romney] has little credibility."

Oh, dear! Call out the scolds!

Meanwhile, others have decided to take up the "Get Mitt" cause. Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum both went after Romney for refusing to sign a pro-life pledge -- Santorum managed to catch Huntsman up in his critique as well, despite Huntsman's generally standard-issue pro-life legislative record. And even Tim Pawlenty -- recognizing that he made a terrible mistake by passing on the chance to criticize Romney to his face -- found the courage to renew his attacks on the frontrunner during times he wasn't standing nearby.

Outside of that, there was plenty to chew on from another week on the campaign trail. Matt Taibbi may have inadvertently boosted Bachmann's stock with a Rolling Stone story that was sloppily sourced. Herman Cain indulged himself in some "blame the media" hissy fits. Ron Paul came out for marijuana legalization. Buddy Roemer bit the hands that feed his party. President Barack Obama punted away an opportunity to make a difference to some of his core constituents -- twice. And Newt Gingrich? After hitting rock bottom, the master of denial has decided he's going to grab a shovel.

For all of this and more, please feel free to enter the Speculatron for the week of June 24, 2011.

The 2012 Speculatron Weekly Roundup, June 24
Gary Johnson(01 of07)
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Gary Johnson will also apparently be sort-of, kind-of skipping the Iowa Caucus. It's a curious decision considering that, the last time we checked, he was going to be participating in a "Tea Party bus tour" of the Hawkeye State. (Maybe Sarah Palin has just ruined "bus tours" for everyone.)Instead, Johnson is focused on New Hampshire:
Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson said Thursday his path to victory for the Republican presidential nomination is predicated on a strong showing in New Hampshire, the early primary state that can make or break a bid for the White House.Johnson, who is polling in the low single digits in national polls, said he's not necessarily skipping Iowa, the first state to weigh in on the 2012 GOP nomination, but acknowledged his centrist views on social issues will not play very well in the Hawkeye State.He said his brand of retail politics will be successful in New Hampshire and after his showing there the "light really goes bright.""What you do with the bright light, that's success or failure," Johnson told CNN.
National Review, in assessing the jobs record of the GOP candidates shone something of a bright light on the former New Mexico governor when that noted that he "has the best record of the official candidates, with a job-growth rate of 11.6 percent during his tenure."Oddly enough, Johnson decided to hide that light under a bushel, by refusing the credit:
"Don't get me wrong," Johnson said in a statement. "We are proud of this distinction. We had a 11.6 percent job growth that occurred during our two terms in office. But the headlines that accompanied that report -- referring to governors, including me, as 'job creators' -- were just wrong.""The fact is, I can unequivocally say that I did not create a single job while I was governor," Johnson added. Instead, "we kept government in check, the budget balanced, and the path to growth clear of unnecessary regulatory obstacles."
This is actually a very good time in America to be able to take credit for creating jobs. This is not a good time in America to be sounding like Sharron Angle.
Fred Karger(02 of07)
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Fred Karger's quest to get into a debate and match up against the rest of the field continues apace. But at the very least, he's starting to get heckled by the supporters of other campaigns -- in this case, someone who supports Rick Santorum. Towleroad put it more wittily than we could hope to do when it refered to the heckler as someone "angry that he took some of her anti-gay time." As the Laguna Beach Patch notes, Karger's "aims involve moving the GOP from a far-right position back to the center -- more along the lines of the fiscally conservative, socially progressive Republican party Karger grew up and worked in for years." Obviously, that heckler proves this will be a work in progress!Speaking of works in progress, Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund President Chuck Wolfe made news this week when he predicted that America would see the rise of a viable, openly-gay presidential candidates within 20 years. Where does that leave Karger? Well, "the Victory Fund has not endorsed him given his lack of electoral experience."Even if he can't win their favor, we think Karger, at the very least, may have his revenge on the Victory Fund by laying the groundwork for their prediction to arrive ahead of schedule. We'll be eager to hear, by the way, how Karger responds to President Obama's remarks this past Thursday night on the issue marriage equality in New York -- which were generically supportive, but specifically tepid.
Sarah Palin(03 of07)
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The end of last week brought a tiny bit of mini-excitement on the Sarah Palin front. The American Spectator reported that she was "expected within a week to make a decision on whether to enter the 2012 presidential campaign."But Palin soon responded on Twitter: "Really? Hmm, guess they forgot to inform me what I'm 'expected to do' next wk."Boo on the Spectator? Well, the guy who reported it, Robert Stacy McCain, is typically well-sourced and prone to keen insight -- he was maybe the one guy who correctly predicted that Herman Cain would be deemed the runaway winner of the South Carolina debate -- so, he's got game. (McCain quipped after Palin's shoot-down: "OK, fine, governor, but I was reporting what my source had been told. Has my source been misinformed?")Maybe what no one could have known at the time was that Palin, apparently, has been called up for jury duty. This is the reason she's giving out for putting what's said to be a temporary end to her bus tour. And by the way, when we heard that the bus tour was cancelled, we were surprised to hear that it was even still going on! People stopped pointing teevee cameras at it, anyway, which all but eliminated the purpose of it.But Palin maintains her bus tour will be back! In the meantime, she's also cancelled a charity trip to Sudan -- probably because she'll be at the movies, on another sort of "charity trip."All of this has her most ardent fans terribly confused. As Alex Pareene reports: "Her Internet fans are a bit frustrated, though! I read some comments at Conservatives4Palin, where the regulars are split between growing anger and stubborn self-delusion."
RuthieAbramson is tragic: "But if she's not running, she would have said so long ago, right? She certainly wouldn't let us all hang on and on like this."Yes she would, Ruthie. Yes, she would.
About the only other Palin news is that various members of the Palin family are seeking to trademark their names, which means we may have to start referring to her officially as "Trixie Klondike" to avoid having to pay her. My feeling is, why stop at a mere trademark? Palin should officially sell the naming rights to her name: "ConocoPhillips Presents Sarah Palin (TM), all rights reserved" sounds good to me.
Ron Paul(04 of07)
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Ron Paul had a lot going for him this week, actually. At the Republican Leadership Conference, he did what he's always done: win a straw poll by dint of having the most passionate (and least undecided) supporters in the room. The national mood is shifting against the wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere, and those who want to see those entanglements ended can look to Paul for a strong and definitive voice of support.And Paul continues to look at the changing tide of the electorate, and sees that more and more, people are either coming behind his libertarian opinions, or at the very least, giving them more consideration than they ever have before. As he put it at the RLC: "I have great news for the cause of liberty: The country is coming our way." Paul's never been more in the mix: the question is whether this cause can spawn a legitimate candidacy.But those are questions for another week. This week, the big Paul news is that he and Barney Frank are sick of the pointless and ineffective "War On Drugs" and so they are going to try to legalize pot. Per the press release from the Marijuana Policy Project:
Other co-sponsors include Rep. John Conyers (D-MI), Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO), and Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA). The legislation would limit the federal government's role in marijuana enforcement to cross-border or inter-state smuggling, allowing people to legally grow, use or sell marijuana in states where it is legal. The legislation is the first bill ever introduced in Congress to end federal marijuana prohibition.Rep. Frank's legislation would end state/federal conflicts over marijuana policy, reprioritize federal resources, and provide more room for states to do what is best for their own citizens.
This is bad news for the Gary Johnson campaign, as Paul will now steal his key issue, consolidate libertarian support under one banner, and probably pick up that loose Willie Nelson endorsement.
Tim Pawlenty(05 of07)
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"Hey guys? Guys?" Tim Pawlenty asked. "Mitt Romney's not hanging around, is he? You see him out there?""No," came the response."You sure? He's not standing behind a door or something? He's really nowhere to be found?""Yeah, Tim. Mitt Romney's not anywhere nearby.""All right! Then I'mma about to SET IT OFF!" yawped Pawlenty.Yes. The Shy Ronnie of the 2012 campaign season went on the attack this week just as soon as he heard the person he was attacking wasn't in close proximity. Obamneycare? You are going to hear it from Tim Pawlenty!
"Well, I don't think you can prosecute the political case against President Obama if you are a co-conspirator in one of the main charges against the president on the political level. And so, it really puts our nominee -- if that's who it turns out to be --in a very difficult spot. And I understand Governor Romney's arguments, that it's different at the state level. But when you look at these two plans, with only modest variations, they're very similar, and nearly identical."
Yep, Pawlenty is back to trying hard, and making an attempt to demonstrate some political courage, if that's okay with everybody. And for what it's worth, Pawlenty is starting to get back something that looks like "momentum," even if it's largely coming his way because of Newt Gingrich's ongoing, slow-motion implosion.Pawlenty is out courting Christian conservatives and Wall Streeters -- moneylenders, Tim Pawlenty's got a place for you in the Temple. And he made news this week with a modest ad buy in Iowa, as well, so the state's teevees will soon rock with his thrilling Michael Bay-style homages.Next week, he'll head to the Council on Foreign Relations to give a "major speech" on foreign policy. (SPOILER ALERT: He wants to stay in Afghanistan way past 2014!)And, as Jon Ward reports, he's "out-hustling" this week's belle of the ball, Michele Bachmann:
But while Bachmann has the buzz, Pawlenty "is diving for loose balls," according to one Iowa Republican. "In a state that demands organizational prowess, that kind of hustle may make the difference."
Apparently, this is all part of some "Field Of Dreams" campaign strategy:
"In fine Iowa fashion, he's taking a 'Field of Dreams' approach," said Robert Haus, a veteran Republican strategist. He's watched Pawlenty's "grind it out" approach to constructing a campaign and wooing fickle Republicans in the first states to hold nominating contests. "If you build it, they will come," Haus said.So far, it's an open question what Pawlenty's one-voter-at-a-time approach has earned him.In polls nationally and in early nominating states, he trails better-known candidates who haven't put in nearly the hours Pawlenty has in New Hampshire and Iowa. He acknowledges that he will raise less money than front-runner Mitt Romney and perhaps others when fundraising reports are released next month.
If T-Paw builds it, they will come. And, by the looks of things, they will then go on to vote for someone else.
Rick Santorum(06 of07)
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It was a meeting of minds. Glenn Beck and Rick Santorum. Fox News Channel. And the mixture soon got frothy: "I could kiss you in the mouth," Beck said.He quickly backpedaled. But the affection was there: Beck told Santorum that in his dreams, he is known as "President Santorum Tomorrow." I am going to assume this means that Rick Santorum would change his name to "Santorum Tomorrow." Though I'll admit: That's what I was hoping Ron Artest would change his name to.Beyond that, Santorum spent his week doing what he always does: yelling at people who don't hate abortion as much as he does, accusing Attorney General Eric Holder of 'shrooming and supporting his colleagues who like to go a-whoring.
The Obama Primary(07 of07)
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Last week's Netroots Nation conference revealed some of the fraying between President Barack Obama and some of the progressives that can typically be counted on to provide energy and commitment to a lefty political campaign. But there are some limits to the disconnect -- provided you don't dig too deeply below the top lines of approval polls:
A straw poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research showed that 80 percent either approve or strongly approve of the president more than a year before voters head to the polls to decide whether he deserves a second term. The results broke down to 27 percent strongly approving of Obama and 53 percent approving "somewhat." Thirteen percent said they "somewhat disapprove," and 7 percent strongly disapprove of the president.
This indicates that the people who voted for Obama last year are favorably inclined to doing so again. But people who "somewhat" approve don't exactly spend all their off hours knocking on doors and manning phone banks in battleground districts, so the work of shoring up the base is sort of underway.Thing is, those "somewhats" are stuck peering at a panoply of partial measures. You into some troop withdrawal, for instance? Yeah, there's a promise of a tiny bit of that. You'll need to be enthusiastic about staying in Afghanistan until 2014, though!But there was a key test Thursday night in New York City at a top-dollar LGBT fundraiser. As you may have heard, Obama has been "evolving" on the issue of same-sex marriage. And with the city -- and the state -- hanging on every little bit of intrigue as lawmakers in Albany work out the end game on what could be a landmark victory for marriage equality, the stage was set for the president to complete this "evolution."I mean, why tell people you're "evolving" if you aren't more or less on the trajectory of coming out in favor? (For the record, the authors of the Speculatron support marriage equality, not because we have "evolved," but because we believe ourselves to be "intelligently designed," to steal/take back a term.)As for Obama, well, he mostly "punted," as our own Sam Stein reports:
"Right now, I understand, there is a little debate going on here in New York," he said, as the crowd muted their cheers and chatter in anticipation. "Under the leadership of Governor [Andrew] Cuomo, with the support of Democrats and Republicans, New York is doing exactly what democracies are supposed to do. There is debate and deliberation about what it means here in New York to treat people fairly in the eyes of the law. That is the power of our democratic system. It is not always pretty there are setbacks there are frustrations. But in grappling with tough and at time emotional issues in the legislatures and the courts and the ballot box and, yes, around the dinner table and the office hallways -- sometimes even in the Oval Office -- slowly but surely we find a way forward. That is how we will achieve change that is lasting. Change that just a few years ago would have seemed impossible."It was not a deviation from the usual script. Nor was it the "fierce urgency of now" that Obama had often blared on the 2008 campaign trail. But, save a few hecklers, it would suffice for the night."Everyone in the room would have been thrilled if he had come out for marriage equality," said Sarah Holland, an attendee. "I think for some people it rang hollow for him to be talking about equality and not going the full distance."At the same time," she added, "people in that room are politically astute."Holland said Obama was the president who had made the most impact in her lifetime. "I think he really believes in equality," she said.
Wow, where do we pick up our "WE THINK WE BELIEVE 2012" tee-shirts? They'll be out there, right?

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