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538 Projecting a Martha Roby Win

538 Projecting a Martha Roby Win
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Matthew Givens has written political commentary for websites, newspapers, and his own political blog.

Matthew Givens has written political commentary for websites, newspapers, and his own political blog.
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The 538 Blog with the New York Times released an updated look at the Alabama District 2 House race between incumbent Bobby Bright (D) and challenger Martha Roby (R). The October 15th projection gives Roby a 76.5% chance of winning the November election. Their projected margin is Roby winning with 51.9% of the vote to Bright's 45.9% of the vote.

Though the polls monitored by 538 show Bright still in the lead, they factor in many other variables to reach their projections. Items such as district demographics, past voting history of the District, and recent momentum in polling data and fundraising all play a part in their analysis.

A separate analysis of the race by ElectionProjection.com shows Roby winning by a small margin.

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